Birmingham City welcome Leeds United to St Andrew’s on Sunday, with a place in the FA Cup fifth round up for grabs – and if the magic of the cup has taught us anything, it’s that league tables can occasionally be used as decorative items rather than factual references.

Yes, the two sides are separated by divisions, but this has all the ingredients of a proper cup tie: a raucous home crowd, a Premier League side trying not to be embarrassed, and 90 minutes (or more) of chaos waiting to unfold.

In the FA Cup third round, Leeds brushed aside Derby County 3-1 with relative comfort. Birmingham, meanwhile, survived a nervy 3-2 win at Cambridge after letting a two-goal lead become unnecessarily dramatic – because what’s the FA Cup without a little heart-rate spike?

Leeds may head into the weekend as favourites, but writing off the Blues at St Andrew’s is a risky game. Birmingham’s home form has been more than respectable, and they’ll be bang up for this one. Expect them to come flying out of the blocks.

Leeds are beginning to look like a side that belongs back in the Premier League – even if the table hasn’t quite caught up yet. Their rough start back in the top flight still leaves them hovering near the bottom, but recent performances suggest they’re stronger than their position suggests.

After a bruising encounter with Arsenal, they showed character to earn an impressive draw against Chelsea – the league’s in-form side at the time. That result felt less like a smash-and-grab and more like a statement.

Picks and predictions for Birmingham vs Leeds

Leeds to Qualify

Leeds aren’t exactly defensive perfection – “controlled chaos” might be the polite term – but going forward, they’ve looked sharp. Daniel Farke has his side playing with confidence, and they carry a real attacking threat.

Birmingham will likely take the game to Leeds early on, and that ambition could play straight into the visitors’ hands. The gap between the Premier League and Championship is sizeable, and over 90 minutes, that quality difference often tells.

Expect Leeds to find a way through – even if it’s not entirely stress-free.

Both Teams to Score

If you’re expecting Birmingham to sit back and politely admire Leeds, think again. At home, they’ll have a go. With attacking quality in players like Patrick Roberts and Demarai Grey, they’re capable of causing problems.

Leeds, for all their attacking flair, aren’t watertight at the back. Chances will come for the Blues – and in a cup tie, one goal can easily turn a game into a shootout.

Where can I watch Birmingham vs Leeds?

For viewers in the USA, they can catch this FA Cup tie live on ESPN2 and ESPN+. Kick-off is 7:00 am EST.

Supporters in the UK will be able to watch live on TNT Sports 3 and Discovery+. Kick off is at 12:00 pm GMT

What is Birmingham’s current form?

W-D-W-W-D

What is Leeds’ current form?

W-D-L-W-D

What were the results of the last five head-to-head matches between Birmingham and Leeds?

01/01/24 – Leeds 3-0 Birmingham (Championship)

12/08/23 – Birmingham 1-0 Leeds (Championship)

29/12/19 – Birmingham 4-5 Leeds (Championship)

19/10/19 – Leeds 1-0 Birmingham (Championship)

06/04/19 – Birmingham 1-0 Leeds (Championship)

What is Birmingham’s predicted line-up?

Beadle – Iwata, Neumann, Klarer, Wagner – Doyle, Solis, Roberts, Osman, – Stansfield, Duksch.

Injured: Paik, Robinson, Cochrane, Laird, Buchanan

What is Leeds’ predicted line-up?

Perri – Rodon, Justin, Bijol – Gruev, Ampadu, Bogle, Gudmundsson – James, Gnonto – Piroe.

Injured: Stach, Struijk

Doubt: Calvert-Lewin