Staying in the Premier League has never been more difficult. The gap between the established top-flight sides and newly promoted teams seems to grow every year, and one bad run can quickly turn optimism into panic.
Every Premier League season starts with dreams of Europe, title challenges and breakthrough campaigns.
For a handful of clubs, though, the reality is much simpler.
Survival.
Last season proved once again that momentum only gets you so far. Recruitment, squad depth and experience usually make the difference once the pressure starts to build.
Picking the three relegated sides before a ball has even been kicked is never easy. Injuries, January signings and surprise packages always throw a few predictions into chaos.
Still, there are a few teams that already look like they’ll have a long season ahead.
Ipswich Town – 13/20 to be relegated
Odds courtesy of 10bet.com
Ipswich deserve enormous credit for bouncing straight back into the Premier League.
Kieran McKenna built an organised, well-drilled side that knows exactly how it wants to play, and momentum can be a powerful thing after promotion.
But he isn’t there anymore. Not only are Ipswich going into the Premier League blind, but they are going in with a new manager.
Gary O’Neil will need time to settle with his squad as the season starts. The problem is that the Premier League rarely allows you to settle.
Every mistake is punished. Every missed chance suddenly matters a lot more.
Ipswich have strengthened over the summer, particularly with players who already understand the demands of the division, but survival often comes down to whether you have enough match-winners when games become tight.
Portman Road will undoubtedly be a difficult place to visit.
Whether they can collect enough points away from home could decide their season.
Hull City – 1/4 to be relegated
Odds courtesy of 10bet.com
Hull have already defied expectations just by getting here.
Very few people had them down for promotion at the start of last season, yet they found a way and deservedly booked their return to the Premier League.
Now comes the hard part.
Hull have recruited sensibly, but this still feels like a squad that’s short on proven Premier League experience.
There is quality in their side, but the jump in standard is relentless. Every week brings another elite attack to deal with, and I’m not sure they have the squad to meet those demands.
One concern is where the goals come from if confidence starts to dip.
Promoted teams often stay competitive for long periods before one defensive mistake or missed opportunity costs them again.
Hull cannot afford too many of those afternoons if they want to stay up.
Bournemouth – 9/1 to be relegated
Odds courtesy of 10bet.com
The first entry that isn’t a newly promoted side.
Bournemouth have spent the last few seasons proving people wrong.
Under Andoni Iraola, they developed into one of the Premier League’s most entertaining sides, earned a place in Europe and regularly took points off clubs expected to finish well above them.
The problem is that success comes at a cost.
Iraola’s move to Liverpool leaves Bournemouth without the manager who built that identity, and replacing him with Marco Rose feels like a gamble.
There’s no questioning Rose’s pedigree. He’s managed Borussia Dortmund, RB Leipzig and Salzburg, but the Premier League is unlike anything else.
Plenty of successful managers from across Europe have discovered just how unforgiving England’s top flight can be.
On top of adapting to a new coach, Bournemouth also have to balance European football for the first time in their history.
Thursday nights abroad followed by demanding Premier League fixtures at the weekend can quickly take their toll, particularly on clubs without the squad depth of the traditional top six.
Several key players have also moved on over the last couple of transfer windows, meaning Rose isn’t inheriting the same squad Iraola built.
There’s still enough quality to believe Bournemouth can survive.
The concern is whether everything changes at once.
New manager. European football. A slightly different squad.
That’s a lot for any club to deal with in a single season.
Sunderland – 11/4 to be relegated
Odds courtesy of 10bet.com
Sunderland were one of last season’s biggest success stories.
A seventh-place finish and qualification for the Europa League was far beyond what anybody expected when they returned to the Premier League.
Ironically, that’s exactly why this season could be even tougher.
European football brings extra matches, more travelling and far greater demands on the squad.
Opponents also know exactly what Sunderland are about now.
The element of surprise has disappeared.
The Black Cats have recruited well again and continue to build one of the Premier League’s most exciting young squads, but balancing Thursday nights in Europe with weekend league fixtures is a challenge even established clubs sometimes struggle to manage.
I still expect Sunderland to have enough quality to stay clear of danger.
But if injuries begin to pile up, they could find themselves in a battle nobody expected.
Their home form was incredible last season, and it will have to be again this season if they are to steer clear of a relegation fight.
Coventry City – 3/5 to be relegated
Odds courtesy of 10bet.com
After 25 years away, Coventry are finally back in the Premier League.
Frank Lampard deserves enormous credit for leading the Sky Blues back to the top flight, and there is genuine excitement around the club again.
The biggest challenge now is adapting quickly enough.
Coventry play attractive football and won’t simply sit behind the ball every week, which should make them entertaining to watch.
The risk is that open football can quickly become costly against better opposition.
They’ve strengthened during the summer and there is optimism surrounding the squad, but survival often comes down to fine margins rather than good intentions.
If they can turn home games into a fortress, they’ll give themselves every chance.
If not, it could become a very nervous spring.
Crystal Palace – 11/2 to be relegated
Odds courtesy of 10bet.com
Crystal Palace could be one of this season’s biggest wildcards.
Just a few months ago they were celebrating the greatest achievement in the club’s history after lifting the UEFA Conference League and securing a place in the Europa League.
Fast-forward to the start of the new season, and the mood feels very different.
Oliver Glasner’s departure leaves Palace facing a huge rebuild at exactly the wrong time. He didn’t just deliver silverware, he completely changed the club’s mentality.
Replacing that influence won’t happen overnight.
There’s also a sense that Palace could be victims of their own success.
Expectations have never been higher, but so too are the demands. European football, a new manager and rivals who have all strengthened over the summer make for a far more difficult campaign than the one they’ve just enjoyed.
Bookmakers have Palace among the favourites for relegation, which says plenty about how much uncertainty surrounds the club heading into the new season.
The quality is still there to finish comfortably clear of danger.
But if new manager Pierre Sage struggles to build on Glasner’s foundations and Palace make a slow start, confidence could disappear remarkably quickly.
Who will be relegated from the Premier League this season
If I had to pick three today, I’d go with Ipswich, Hull and Coventry.
Groundbreaking stuff picking the three promoted teams, I know.
The fact is that those three teams face the enormous challenge that comes with stepping up from the Championship. Surviving in the Premier League is one of football’s hardest tests, and I think they’ll find themselves playing catch-up for much of the season.
Bournemouth are my one to watch from the rest. Losing Andoni Iraola to Liverpool is a huge blow, Marco Rose faces the difficult task of adapting to the Premier League, and the added demands of Europa League football could make life even tougher if results don’t go their way early on.
Crystal Palace are another side to keep an eye on. Winning the UEFA Conference League just a few months ago was the greatest moment in the club’s history, but Oliver Glasner’s departure has created real uncertainty. A new manager and Europa League football make this a much tougher campaign than the last one, and it’s no surprise they’re among the bookmakers’ favourites to go down.
Sunderland complete the group of clubs I’ll be watching closely, partly because I’m a season ticket holder.
A second Premier League season and Europa League football will stretch them in ways they haven’t experienced before, but continuity under Régis Le Bris, smart recruitment and the confidence gained from last season’s seventh-place finish make me think they’ll have enough to stay clear of the bottom three.
The bookies might disagree with me on that one, but they did last season as well.
As always, though, the relegation battle rarely follows the script. One of these clubs will probably prove everyone wrong, while another side nobody expects could suddenly find themselves dragged into the fight.
That’s why, year after year, the battle to avoid the drop is every bit as compelling as the race for the title.
