The three-week international break provides a natural point to take stock of the Premier League season, and the Top 5 Finish market offers an interesting snapshot of where bookmakers currently expect the campaign to go.
After five matches, the league table has already started to diverge from some of the pre-season expectations.
Manchester City lead the way with a perfect 15 points, while Arsenal are second on goal difference.
Brighton, Brentford and Liverpool also occupy the top six, with Chelsea and Manchester United further down the table.
However, the betting market remains fairly consistent about the five clubs most likely to finish in the Champions League places.
According to the latest Betfair Top 5 Finish market, Arsenal, Man City, Chelsea, Liverpool and Man Utd are the current five favourites.
Betfair and Betfred odds are correct at the time of writing and subject to change.
Arsenal remain the benchmark
Top five odds: 1.01 Betfair, 1.02 Betfred
Arsenal’s 3-0 defeat at Brighton on Saturday was their first league loss of the season, but it has done little to alter the longer-term expectation surrounding Mikel Arteta’s side.
The Gunners had won their opening four matches and remain second in the table, trailing Man City by three points.
Their defensive record before the Brighton defeat was particularly strong, while their squad depth gives them considerable room to absorb a disappointing affair.
The market is therefore treating the defeat as an isolated setback rather than evidence of a significant change in Arsenal’s prospects.
READ MORE: Netherlands vs Germany betting tips, team news and predictions
Man City have made the fastest start
Top five odds: 1.03 Betfair, 1.04 Betfred
If Arsenal remain the bookmakers’ most secure top-five selection, Man City have supplied the strongest early evidence to support their price.
Enzo Maresca’s side have won all five Premier League matches, including Sunday’s entertaining 5-3 victory over Sunderland.
Man City have scored 16 goals and sit three points clear at the top of the table heading into the international break.
The defensive side of that performance will give Maresca something to address, but Man City’s perfect record has established an early gap between themselves and much of the field.
Chelsea are the biggest market vs table contrast
Top five odds: 1.29 with both Betfair and Betfred
Chelsea provide perhaps the most interesting case in the market.
Xabi Alonso’s side sit outside the current top five after five matches and were beaten 3-0 by Brentford on Friday.
They have also conceded 12 league goals, the most in the division at that point of the season.
Yet the bookmakers remain strongly confident about a top-five finish.
That reflects the expectation surrounding Chelsea’s squad and attacking quality, as well as the possibility that their defensive problems can be corrected during the campaign.
It also makes them one of the more intriguing teams to monitor during the international break.
Liverpool are already close to market expectations
Top five odds: 1.40 Betfair, 1.36 Betfred
Liverpool’s current position is more encouraging.
The Reds are sixth after five matches and remain unbeaten, with Sunday’s 1-0 win at Bournemouth moving them to nine points.
It was only their second league victory, however, with three draws slowing their progress.
Andoni Iraola’s side have nevertheless produced three consecutive clean sheets, suggesting their defensive structure is beginning to settle.
The bigger question is whether Liverpool can become more consistent in the final third.
If they can turn some of those draws into wins, their current market price becomes easier to understand.
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE: Portugal vs Wales betting tips, team news and predictions
Man Utd are the vulnerable fifth favourite
Top five odds: 1.91 Betfair, 1.67 Betfred
Manchester United are the most obvious question mark among the bookmakers’ established five.
Man United sit 12th after five matches with just five points, having won once, drawn twice and lost twice.
Sunday’s 1-1 draw at Fulham followed the 1-0 Manchester derby defeat and means Michael Carrick’s side have already dropped seven points from their opening 15.
Yet the market still gives United a better than even-money implication for a top-five finish at both bookmakers.
That makes them the club to watch most closely over the next few weeks.
Can Brentford or Brighton break into the five?
Brentford are 4.20 with Betfair and 5.00 with Betfred, while Brighton are 4.50 and 5.00 respectively.
Both have already made stronger starts than several of the established favourites. Brentford are third and unbeaten after five matches, while Brighton moved up to third after their emphatic 3-0 victory over Arsenal.
Brighton’s Top 6 odds have already shortened significantly following that result, with Oddschecker reporting that 14 of 17 bookmakers cut their prices.
That leaves the international break as an important checkpoint.
However, there remains a clear five-team hierarchy with bookmakers: Arsenal, Man City, Chelsea, Liverpool and Man Utd, but the early-season table has already given Brentford and Brighton a platform to potentially challenge the frontrunners from.
READ NEXT: Man Utd: Carrick positive despite Fulham draw – but Neville calls Red Devils ‘a disgrace’
