Twenty years after Zinedine Zidane’s infamous World Cup final against Italy, the Frenchman returns to face the Azzurri with rather less chance of being sent off.

This time, he’ll be watching from the touchline.

Thursday night’s Nations League meeting at San Siro offers Zidane an opportunity to secure top spot in Group A1, while Roberto Mancini will be hoping to spoil the occasion and put Italy firmly back in contention.

France arrive unbeaten in the competition, with 10 points from their opening four matches. Italy sit three points behind, knowing victory would draw them level with Les Bleus before Sunday’s final round of group fixtures.

The reverse meeting in Paris finished 1-1, although that scoreline didn’t tell the whole story.

Gianluigi Donnarumma produced seven saves to keep Italy in the contest, with France creating enough opportunities to feel they should have taken all three points.

Mancini’s side have improved considerably since their opening defeat to Belgium. A 4-1 victory in Türkiye was followed by that draw in Paris, before Italy defeated the Turks again, this time 3-1 in Bologna.

Pio Esposito has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of Italy’s rebuilding process. The young striker scored in the latest victory and has quickly established himself as an important attacking option.

France, meanwhile, have looked increasingly dangerous under Zidane.

Their most recent Nations League victory against Belgium was particularly impressive. Michael Olise helped transform the game after coming off the bench, inspiring a remarkable spell in which France scored four goals in 15 minutes.

With Kylian Mbappé, Désiré Doué, Rayan Cherki and Olise available, France possess enough attacking talent to trouble almost any defence in international football.

But Italy have their own reasons for optimism. Sandro Tonali and Nicolò Barella provide energy in midfield, while Mancini’s younger attacking options have given the Azzurri a freshness that was badly missing during their previous struggles.

This is also a fixture with genuine consequences. Italy travel to Belgium on Sunday, so defeat against France would leave their quarter-final qualification hopes under considerable pressure.

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What are the best betting tips for Italy vs France?

France to win and both teams to score

France’s attacking options make them difficult to oppose, but Italy have shown enough improvement to suggest this won’t be a straightforward evening for Zidane.

Les Bleus have won three of their four Nations League matches and remain unbeaten. Their ability to change games through substitutions is another advantage, particularly with Olise, Cherki and Doué competing for attacking positions.

However, Italy have scored eight goals across their previous three group fixtures. Mancini’s side are playing with greater freedom, and the Esposito brothers provide different attacking threats.

France have kept clean sheets in both of their away Nations League matches this campaign, so backing Italy to score carries genuine risk.

Nevertheless, the hosts have enough quality to make this competitive. A France victory with both teams scoring offers a more adventurous angle than simply taking the visitors in the match-result market.

Michael Olise to score or assist

Olise’s influence on France’s recent performances makes him one of the most interesting player-market options.

The Bayern Munich attacker was instrumental in France’s remarkable late turnaround against Belgium, helping Zidane’s side score four times in just 15 minutes.

His ability to move inside from the right creates problems for defenders. Olise can deliver dangerous passes between the lines, combine with Mbappé or attack the penalty area himself.

Italy’s left side could be particularly important. Riccardo Calafiori likes to advance, potentially leaving space behind him when France recover possession.

There is one important consideration: Olise is competing with several excellent attackers for a starting position. This selection becomes considerably more attractive if he is named in Zidane’s XI.

With his creativity and goal threat, the score-or-assist market offers two routes to a return without requiring France to dominate the entire match.

Over 3.5 total cards

There is more at stake here than a routine international friendly.

France can secure first place in Group A1 with victory, while Italy are trying to keep themselves in contention for the quarter-finals. A draw would leave Mancini’s side with considerable work to do against Belgium.

The midfield battle should be particularly competitive. Tonali and Barella will be tasked with disrupting France’s possession, while Aurélien Tchouaméni and Adrien Rabiot can make life difficult for Italy’s attacking midfielders.

France also possess several quick attackers who are capable of drawing fouls when defenders attempt to stop counterattacks.

Four or more cards is a more speculative selection than a conventional goals market, and the referee’s approach will matter.

However, the combination of tournament stakes, technical midfielders and dangerous wide players gives this market a reasonable tactical basis.

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How to watch Italy vs France

• Date: Thursday, 12 November 2026

• Kick-off: 7:45 pm GMT

• Competition: UEFA Nations League, League A Group 1

• Venue: San Siro (Stadio Giuseppe Meazza), Milan

• UK: Amazon Prime Video

• USA: FOX Sports, Fubo and ViX

• Canada: DAZN

Prime Video is showing the fixture in the UK, with Nations League matches available through its pay-per-view service.

Italy predicted lineup and team news

Predicted formation: 4-3-3

Predicted XI: Donnarumma; Kayode, Scalvini, Bastoni, Calafiori; Barella, Tonali, Doumbia; Vergara, Pio Esposito, Sebastiano Esposito.

Roberto Mancini is without several established players. Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Giacomo Raspadori and Moise Kean are unavailable, while Gianluca Mancini has withdrawn with a muscular injury. Federico Gatti has been called up as defensive cover.

Gianluigi Donnarumma should captain the side after his outstanding performance in Paris. Alessandro Bastoni and Giorgio Scalvini are expected to form the central defensive partnership, with Michael Kayode and Riccardo Calafiori occupying the full-back positions.

Sandro Tonali and Nicolò Barella should provide the foundation in midfield. Pio Esposito is expected to lead the attack, potentially alongside his brother Sebastiano.

AC Milan winger Alphadjo Cissé is pushing for involvement after scoring eight goals in 13 club appearances this season. Como youngster Mattia Liberali has also received his first senior call-up.

France predicted lineup and team news

Predicted formation: 4-3-3

Predicted XI: Maignan; Gusto, Jacquet, Upamecano, Truffert; Tchouaméni, Rabiot, Cherki; Olise, Mbappé, Doué.

Zinedine Zidane has several important absentees. William Saliba, Ousmane Dembélé, Maghnes Akliouche and Manu Koné are unavailable, while Pierre Kalulu has been ruled out with a hamstring injury.

Aurélien Tchouaméni and Ibrahima Konaté return to the squad after missing October’s international fixtures. Marcus Thuram is also back in contention, giving Zidane another option in attack.

Dayot Upamecano is available again after serving a suspension and could partner Jérémy Jacquet in central defence. Malo Gusto is expected to start at right-back, with Adrien Truffert on the opposite flank.

Kylian Mbappé should lead the attack, supported by Michael Olise and Désiré Doué. Rayan Cherki could operate in midfield, although Zidane has several alternatives, including Eduardo Camavinga and Warren Zaïre-Emery.

Italy vs France stats

• France lead Nations League Group A1 with 10 points from four matches.

• Italy are second with seven points, three behind Thursday’s opponents.

• Belgium occupy third place with six points.

• France are unbeaten in their four Nations League fixtures.

• Zidane’s side have won three matches and drawn one.

• Italy have won two, drawn one and lost one group match.

• Italy are unbeaten in their previous three Nations League fixtures.

• Mancini’s side have scored eight goals across those three matches.

• Italy defeated Türkiye 4-1 away from home in September.

• The Azzurri followed their draw in France with a 3-1 victory over Türkiye.

• France and Italy drew 1-1 in Paris on 2 October.

• Gianluigi Donnarumma made seven saves in that meeting.

• France have kept clean sheets in both Nations League away fixtures this campaign.

• Italy have scored in each of their previous nine meetings with France.

• France won 3-1 at San Siro in November 2024.

• Italy have lost their last three international matches played in Milan.

• Pio Esposito has scored seven goals in his first 13 senior international appearances.

• AC Milan’s Alphadjo Cissé has scored eight goals in 13 club appearances this season.

Italy vs France prediction

There is a strong argument for France being the better side, but Thursday’s meeting looks more competitive than their respective positions in the group might suggest.

Italy have improved considerably since Mancini returned. Their midfield has greater energy, and the emergence of younger attacking players has given the Azzurri a more unpredictable edge.

However, France possess an attacking advantage that is difficult to ignore.

Mbappé’s movement behind the defensive line will demand constant attention, while Olise and Doué can create opportunities from wide positions.

Italy should be capable of causing problems themselves. Tonali and Barella can compete with France’s midfield, and Pio Esposito has demonstrated an impressive ability to convert opportunities at international level.

The hosts also have the motivation of knowing victory would draw them level with France before the final group fixtures.

Nevertheless, Zidane’s side have shown greater consistency throughout the campaign. Their ability to introduce quality from the bench could prove particularly important if the match remains close heading into the final half-hour.

Italy should make this difficult, but France have enough attacking quality to edge a contest in which both teams find the net.

Score prediction: Italy 1-2 France

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