Arsenal return to Highbury on Tuesday, although not quite the one they called home for 93 years, as the Premier League champions visit Fleetwood Town in the fourth round of the Carabao Cup.
Mikel Arteta’s side are overwhelming favourites against opponents sitting 18th in League Two, but Fleetwood’s performances in this competition have been considerably better than their domestic results suggest.
Matt Lawlor’s team have reached the fourth round for the first time in the club’s history, beating Chesterfield 1-0, Shrewsbury 4-0 and Championship opposition Sheffield United 1-0 without conceding a goal.
All three victories came at Highbury Stadium, where Fleetwood have lost just once in ten matches across all competitions this season.
They were also good value for their victory over Sheffield United, hitting the woodwork twice and having another effort disallowed before progressing courtesy of a Rhys Norrington-Davies own goal.
Fleetwood have taken only 14 points from 13 matches and arrive following consecutive defeats against Cheltenham and Exeter, conceding six goals across those two games.
Arsenal, meanwhile, have won four of their five matches since the October international break, most recently beating Everton 2-0 on Saturday to move level on points with Manchester City at the top of the Premier League.
Arteta is expected to make significant changes after a demanding schedule that has included Champions League matches against Lille and Bayern Munich, particularly with Sunday’s trip to Liverpool approaching.
But Arsenal’s strength in depth was evident in the previous round, when a team featuring nine changes beat Premier League opposition Ipswich Town 4-2 at Portman Road.
Fleetwood’s home record deserves respect, but even a heavily rotated Arsenal side should have enough quality to reach the quarter-finals comfortably.
What are the best picks for Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal?
Arsenal -2.5 handicap
Backing Arsenal simply to win offers little appeal at odds around 1/11, so the handicap provides a more interesting way to support Arteta’s side.
There are reasons to be cautious about expecting a particularly emphatic victory.
Fleetwood have been difficult to break down at home, conceding just four goals in six home league matches, and their three clean sheets in this competition demonstrate that they are capable of frustrating stronger opposition.
However, their recent defensive performances have deteriorated, with four goals conceded at Cheltenham followed by another two at Exeter on Saturday.
Arsenal have also shown that rotation need not significantly weaken their attacking threat.
They scored four times at Ipswich despite resting most of their established starters, and the likes of Eberechi Eze, Mikel Merino and Max Dowman could all feature again on Tuesday.
The visitors should dominate possession and spend extended periods in attacking areas, while Fleetwood may struggle to maintain the defensive discipline that carried them through the earlier rounds.
At 4/5, Arsenal to win by at least three goals looks a reasonable alternative to backing an away victory at extremely short odds.
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Max Dowman 2+ shots on target
Dowman provides the more aggressive second selection.
The 16-year-old was outstanding in Arsenal’s previous Carabao Cup fixture, scoring twice against Ipswich from three attempts, with two hitting the target.
Those goals earned him the competition’s Player of the Round award, although his opportunities in the Premier League have remained limited.
Bukayo Saka’s thigh injury could create another opening for Dowman, particularly with Arteta likely to protect several senior players ahead of Liverpool.
The Arsenal manager stopped short of confirming the teenager would start when asked on Monday, but he remains one of the leading candidates to feature on the right.
Dowman’s performance against Ipswich is a relatively small sample, and his minutes remain a consideration, but he should have opportunities to attack Fleetwood’s defence if selected.
With Arsenal expected to control proceedings and create chances against fourth-tier opposition, two shots on target looks worth considering at 13/8.
Where can I watch Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal?
Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal kicks off at 8pm GMT on Tuesday, October 27 at Highbury Stadium.
The Carabao Cup fourth-round tie will be shown live in the UK on Sky Sports Football, with streaming available through Sky Go.
What is Fleetwood Town’s predicted team?
(3-5-2) Lynch – Rooney, Bennett, Potter – Cirino, McLean, Neal, Helm, Andrew – Coughlan, Evans.
Injured: Kane Thompson-Sommers, Andy Cannon.
Suspended: Lewis McCann.
Ched Evans has scored three goals in three Carabao Cup appearances this season and should lead the attack alongside Ronan Coughlan.
What is Arsenal’s predicted team?
(4-2-3-1) Kepa – White, Mosquera, Salmon, Hincapié – Zubimendi, Lewis-Skelly – Dowman, Merino, Eze – Gyokeres.
Injured: Bukayo Saka, William Saliba.
Doubtful: Riccardo Calafiori, Christos Tzolis.
Marli Salmon and Dowman could both benefit from Arteta’s anticipated rotation, while Viktor Gyökeres and Kai Havertz are competing for the central attacking role.
Score prediction: Fleetwood Town 0-3 Arsenal
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