Everton haven’t lifted a major trophy since 1995. Newcastle waited 70 years for one, finally ending their drought in this very competition last season.

Neither club needs reminding what a trip to Wembley would mean.

The two sides meet at the Hill Dickinson Stadium on Thursday evening in the Carabao Cup fourth round, with a place in the quarter-finals up for grabs.

It’s also the first of two meetings in four days, with a Premier League rematch scheduled at St James’ Park on Monday.

David Moyes could certainly do with a victory.

Everton’s eight-match unbeaten start to the season has given way to consecutive 2-0 defeats against Chelsea and Arsenal. The Toffees have slipped into the bottom half of the Premier League table, and their lack of goals is becoming an increasingly familiar problem.

Newcastle have endured a similarly inconsistent few weeks.

Mattias Jaissle’s side lost three of four matches before Sunday’s 2-0 victory at Crystal Palace. Harvey Barnes and William Osula provided the goals, although the Magpies managed just two shots on target.

That result should restore some confidence, but Newcastle’s away record remains a concern.

Both managers have reasons to take this competition seriously. The question is whether Everton’s home advantage can overcome Newcastle’s recent cup pedigree.

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What are the best betting tips for Everton vs Newcastle?

Under 3.5 goals

Everton’s recent matches haven’t offered much entertainment for neutrals, but they’ve been considerably more useful for anyone interested in the goals markets.

Five of the Toffees’ last six matches have featured two goals or fewer.

Moyes’s side have also failed to score in consecutive defeats against Chelsea and Arsenal, while their previous home league victory was a narrow 1-0 success against Ipswich.

Everton’s defensive organisation remains one of their biggest strengths.

They’ve kept five clean sheets in 10 matches across all competitions this season, and their approach rarely involves taking unnecessary risks.

Newcastle have greater attacking potential, but their recent performances haven’t been especially convincing either.

Sunday’s 2-0 victory at Crystal Palace came from just two efforts on target.

Their previous Carabao Cup tie also required patience, with Joe Willock scoring an 81st-minute winner against Millwall.

Newcastle’s attacking options should create problems, particularly if Barnes starts, but Everton are unlikely to give them much space.

With both managers potentially rotating and another meeting between the clubs approaching on Monday, a cautious opening wouldn’t be surprising.

Under 2.5 goals is worth considering at a bigger price, but the additional margin offered by under 3.5 makes it my preferred selection.

Thierno Barry over 2.5 shots

Everton have struggled for goals, but Thierno Barry hasn’t been shy about trying to change that.

The French striker has registered 27 shots in eight Premier League appearances this season, an average of 3.38 per game.

Twelve of those efforts have been on target.

Barry has also scored three league goals and was responsible for a hat-trick in Everton’s 4-0 Carabao Cup victory over Preston.

Those numbers suggest a player who is regularly getting into shooting positions, even when Everton aren’t creating a huge volume of chances.

Newcastle’s defensive record makes this an interesting matchup.

The Magpies have faced 139 shots across their opening eight Premier League matches, more than any other team in the division.

That’s an average of more than 17 attempts conceded per game.

Everton might not dominate possession, but they should have opportunities to get the ball into Barry inside the penalty area.

His willingness to shoot rather than look for another pass makes the individual attempts market appealing.

The main concern is rotation.

Barry has started both of Everton’s previous Carabao Cup fixtures, suggesting Moyes trusts him in the competition, but his inclusion needs confirming.

If he starts, three shots looks a reasonable target given his season averages and Newcastle’s tendency to allow opponents attempts.

Harvey Barnes anytime goalscorer

Newcastle’s attacking performances have been inconsistent, but Harvey Barnes continues to offer a genuine goal threat.

The winger was on target in Sunday’s 2-0 victory at Crystal Palace and is pushing to retain his starting place.

Barnes is particularly dangerous when attacking the space between a full-back and centre-back.

He doesn’t need to dominate possession to influence a match, and his movement into the penalty area makes him a useful option in the goalscorer market.

Everton’s defence is generally disciplined, although the possible absence of Jarrad Branthwaite could force Moyes into changes.

Branthwaite missed Saturday’s defeat at Arsenal with concussion, while other defensive options could be rotated.

Barnes should also benefit if Newcastle use Yoane Wissa or William Osula centrally, with either capable of occupying Everton’s centre-backs and creating space for runners.

There is a case for backing Newcastle to qualify, given their outstanding recent record in this competition.

However, their poor away performances and Everton’s strong home record make that a less comfortable selection than it initially appears.

Barnes offers a more specific attacking angle without requiring Newcastle to win.

As with Barry, his starting status is important.

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How to watch Everton vs Newcastle

Date: Thursday, 29 October 2026

Kick-off: 7:45pm GMT

Venue: Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool

Competition: Carabao Cup fourth round

United Kingdom: Sky Sports+ and NOW.

United States: Check Paramount+ for live Carabao Cup coverage. Kick-off is at 3:45pm ET.

Canada: Check local EFL Cup broadcast listings for confirmed coverage.

Everton predicted lineup and team news

Formation: 4-2-3-1

Predicted XI: Pickford; Maitland-Niles, O’Brien, Keane, Mykolenko; Hackney, Armstrong; Dibling, Alcaraz, George; Barry.

Everton are expected to make some changes, although Moyes is unlikely to overhaul his team completely.

Jarrad Branthwaite is a major concern after missing Saturday’s defeat at Arsenal with concussion.

The defender will need to satisfy the relevant return-to-play requirements before being considered.

Jack Grealish is also doubtful after missing the Arsenal fixture through illness.

Vitalii Mykolenko’s availability requires monitoring, potentially leaving Moyes with decisions to make at left-back.

Michael Keane and Ainsley Maitland-Niles could be recalled in defence, while Hayden Hackney and Christian Nørgaard are options in midfield.

Carlos Alcaraz is another player pushing for a starting opportunity.

Tyler Dibling should be particularly hopeful of featuring.

The winger impressed in Everton’s previous Carabao Cup victory over Wolves and could be rewarded with another start.

Thierno Barry is expected to lead the attack after featuring from the beginning in both previous rounds.

Barry’s three-goal performance against Preston remains one of Everton’s most convincing attacking displays of the campaign.

With goals proving difficult to come by in the Premier League, Moyes may be reluctant to leave his main striker out.

Newcastle predicted lineup and team news

Formation: 4-2-3-1

Predicted XI: Horníček; Dedić, Thiaw, Botman, Hall; Nico González, Ramsey; Elanga, Wissa, Barnes; Osula.

Mattias Jaissle is expected to rotate, but Newcastle’s recent selections suggest he won’t treat the Carabao Cup as an opportunity to rest his entire first team.

The Magpies have fielded competitive sides in their victories over West Bromwich Albion and Millwall.

Tino Livramento remains unavailable with a knee injury, while goalkeeper Ewen Jaouen is also sidelined.

Lewis Miley is doubtful after picking up a knock, and Matias Fernandez-Pardo has been struggling with illness.

Jaissle has several players pushing for recalls.

Malick Thiaw and Sven Botman could start in central defence, while Anthony Elanga and Jacob Ramsey are options further forward.

Yoane Wissa is another candidate for the starting lineup.

His pace and movement could be useful against an Everton side that generally defends in a compact shape.

Harvey Barnes and William Osula both scored against Crystal Palace and will hope to retain their places.

Barnes, in particular, has made a strong case for continued involvement.

Jaissle may also consider the Premier League rematch on Monday, but Newcastle’s recent success in this competition should encourage him to select a team capable of progressing.

Everton vs Newcastle stats

• Everton have lost their last two Premier League matches by 2-0 scorelines.
• The Toffees have scored eight goals in their opening eight league matches.
• Five of Everton’s last six matches have featured two goals or fewer.
• Everton have kept five clean sheets in 10 matches across all competitions.
• Moyes’s side have lost just one of their five home matches this season.
• Thierno Barry has registered 27 shots in eight Premier League appearances, with 12 on target.
• Newcastle have faced 139 shots in eight Premier League matches, the highest total in the division.
• Newcastle have lost three of their last five matches across all competitions.
• The Magpies have scored in 10 of their 11 competitive fixtures this season.
• Newcastle have won their last seven Carabao Cup fourth-round ties.
• Since 2022/23, Newcastle have won 18 matches in the League Cup, more than any other club.
• Everton have lost just one of their last six meetings with Newcastle, winning three and drawing twice.

Everton vs Newcastle prediction

There are good arguments for both sides, which makes the match-result market difficult to approach with much confidence.

Everton have been poor in front of goal recently, but their home performances have generally been solid.

They’ve also defended well for much of the season, and Newcastle haven’t exactly been overwhelming opponents away from St James’ Park.

The Magpies have suffered heavy defeats at Leeds and Coventry, conceding four goals in each match.

However, Newcastle’s cup record deserves respect.

They’ve won their last seven fourth-round ties and have reached the quarter-finals in each of the previous four seasons.

Jaissle’s side also have more attacking options capable of changing a tight game.

Barnes could be particularly important, while Wissa and Osula offer different ways of troubling Everton’s defence.

I expect Moyes to make this difficult for Newcastle, particularly during the opening stages.

Everton should create opportunities of their own, with Barry’s movement and shooting volume making him a player to watch.

But Newcastle’s attacking quality could eventually make the difference.

It might take extra time or penalties to separate them.

Score prediction: Everton 1-1 Newcastle — Newcastle to qualify on penalties

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