Manchester City have conceded nine goals in their last four matches. Brighton have scored 34 goals in all competitions this season, so Wednesday’s Carabao Cup tie at the Etihad looks considerably more interesting than the bookmakers’ odds might suggest.
City’s perfect Premier League start came to an abrupt end on Saturday, when Aston Villa handed Enzo Maresca his first domestic defeat of the season with a 2-1 victory at Villa Park.
It wasn’t a complete surprise. City had already conceded four against Paris Saint-Germain and three against Sunderland, and their defensive performances have become increasingly unconvincing.
Brighton have their own problems after failing to score in successive matches against Jablonec and Liverpool.
However, Fabian Hürzeler’s side have been one of the most entertaining teams in English football this season, and their 3-2 comeback victory over Manchester United in the previous round demonstrated their ability to handle a difficult cup assignment.
With the clubs meeting again in the Premier League on Saturday, both managers are expected to rotate.
Maresca has already confirmed that five senior players will be rested, including Haaland, while Brighton have several injury concerns.
That uncertainty makes Wednesday’s fourth-round tie an intriguing betting contest.
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What are the best betting tips for Manchester City vs Brighton?
Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals
Manchester City’s recent defensive record is difficult to ignore.
Maresca’s side have conceded nine goals in their last four matches across all competitions, failing to keep a clean sheet in any of them.
Their 5-1 victory over AEK Athens was followed by Saturday’s 2-1 defeat at Aston Villa, while Paris Saint-Germain scored four at the Etihad earlier this month.
Brighton have the attacking quality to take advantage.
The Seagulls have scored 34 goals across all competitions this season, including five against Crystal Palace and three against Arsenal.
They also recovered from two goals down to beat Manchester United 3-2 in the previous round.
Admittedly, Brighton’s last two performances have been less convincing.
They failed to score against Jablonec and Liverpool, managing just one shot on target during Sunday’s defeat at Anfield.
However, City’s defensive reshuffle could provide the visitors with more opportunities.
Gerónimo Rulli is confirmed to start in goal, while Rúben Dias and Joško Gvardiol are among the players being rested.
City should still create chances of their own, particularly against a Brighton defence that may also feature several changes.
Rather than taking the shorter price on over 2.5 goals alone, combining it with both teams to score offers a more attractive selection.
Brighton over 1.5 team goals
Brighton have never won away at Manchester City, but their recent performances against the Citizens suggest that record doesn’t tell the full story.
The Seagulls have avoided defeat in their last four meetings with City, including 2-2 and 1-1 draws on their previous two visits to the Etihad.
They’ve also scored at least twice in three of those four encounters.
That record becomes particularly interesting when considering City’s current defensive problems.
Maresca has confirmed that Dias, Gvardiol and Donnarumma will not feature, leaving him to assemble a changed back line in front of Rulli.
Brighton’s attacking approach should test that unfamiliar defensive setup.
Hürzeler encourages his players to press aggressively and commit numbers forward, an approach that has produced 34 goals in all competitions.
Their recent failure to score against Liverpool is a concern, but they enjoyed plenty of possession at Anfield and should approach this fixture with similar ambition.
City remain favourites, but Brighton don’t necessarily need to win for this selection to land.
Two goals from the visitors would be enough, regardless of the final result.
It’s a more ambitious market than simply backing Brighton to score once, and one worth considering if the price reflects the additional risk.
Phil Foden anytime goalscorer
Erling Haaland’s absence changes the picture considerably for Manchester City’s attack.
The Norwegian has scored 13 goals in 11 appearances this season, but Maresca has confirmed he will be rested ahead of Saturday’s Premier League rematch.
That leaves opportunities for other players to take responsibility in front of goal.
Phil Foden is among those expected to return to the starting lineup after being left out against Aston Villa.
The England international has been in encouraging form and should have the freedom to operate in dangerous central positions if Maresca selects him behind the striker.
Brighton’s aggressive defensive approach can leave space between the lines, particularly when their full-backs push forward.
That’s exactly the type of area where Foden can cause problems.
City scored five against Norwich in the previous round despite making extensive changes, demonstrating that their attacking threat doesn’t disappear when Haaland is unavailable.
Foden is not guaranteed to start, so this selection should be checked against the confirmed team news.
However, if he’s included in the starting XI, his ability to arrive in goalscoring positions makes him an appealing individual option.
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What is Manchester City’s predicted lineup?
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Rulli; Lewis, Khusanov, Vitor Reis, O’Reilly; Kovacic, Bouaddi; Allan, Foden, Doku; Floyd Samba.
Injured: Antoine Semenyo.
Rested: Erling Haaland, Gianluigi Donnarumma, Rúben Dias, Joško Gvardiol, Elliot Anderson.
Suspended: None confirmed.
Enzo Maresca has already revealed several important selection decisions.
Gerónimo Rulli will start in goal after keeping a clean sheet on his debut during City’s 5-0 victory over Norwich in the previous round.
Haaland, Donnarumma, Dias, Gvardiol and Anderson have all been given additional rest following Saturday’s defeat at Aston Villa.
Antoine Semenyo remains unavailable with a knee injury.
That creates opportunities throughout the squad.
Rico Lewis and Nico O’Reilly could occupy the full-back positions, with Abdukodir Khusanov and Vitor Reis potentially starting in central defence.
Mateo Kovacic and Ayyoub Bouaddi are candidates to return in midfield, while Allan, Phil Foden and Jérémy Doku could provide the attacking support.
The biggest decision concerns who replaces Haaland.
Seventeen-year-old Floyd Samba scored twice on his senior debut against Norwich and could be rewarded with another start.
Maresca also has the option of using a more experienced attacking player through the middle.
With another meeting against Brighton coming on Saturday, the City manager is unlikely to take unnecessary risks with his regular starters.
What is Brighton’s predicted lineup?
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Steele; Costinha, Vušković, Dunk, Hadjam; Groß, Yalcouyé; Diego Gómez, O’Riley, Osman; Rutter.
Injured: Kaoru Mitoma, Evan Ferguson, Stefanos Tzimas, Femi Azeez, Pascal Struijk.
Doubts: Ferdi Kadıoğlu, Chema Andrés, Mats Wieffer, Yankuba Minteh.
Suspended: None confirmed.
Fabian Hürzeler also has several decisions to make following Sunday’s defeat to Liverpool.
Ferdi Kadıoğlu and Chema Andrés were both forced off at Anfield and face fitness assessments.
Mats Wieffer and Yankuba Minteh have made progress in their recoveries, although their availability remains uncertain.
Kaoru Mitoma, Evan Ferguson and Stefanos Tzimas are among the players expected to remain unavailable.
Jason Steele could be given an opportunity in goal, with Costinha and Jaouen Hadjam candidates to start at full-back.
Luka Vušković and Lewis Dunk may continue in central defence.
Malick Yalcouyé and Matt O’Riley are pushing for opportunities in midfield, while Ibrahim Osman could feature further forward.
Georginio Rutter is an option to lead the attack if Hürzeler decides to rest Charalampos Kostoulas.
The Greek teenager has scored five goals in all competitions this season, including one against Manchester United in the previous round.
Brighton’s injury situation limits their options, but their squad still contains enough attacking quality to trouble City.
How to watch Manchester City vs Brighton
Manchester City host Brighton at the Etihad Stadium on Wednesday, 28 October 2026, with kick-off at 7:30 pm GMT.
United Kingdom: Sky Sports+ and Sky Go.
United States: Paramount+. Kick-off is at 3:30 pm ET.
Canada: Check local Carabao Cup listings for confirmed coverage. Kick-off is at 3:30 pm ET.
Manchester City vs Brighton stats
- Manchester City have conceded nine goals in their last four matches across all competitions.
- City have failed to keep a clean sheet in those four fixtures.
- Brighton have scored 34 goals across all competitions this season.
- Erling Haaland has scored 13 goals in 11 appearances but will be rested for Wednesday’s match.
- City beat Norwich 5-0 in the previous round, with 17-year-old Floyd Samba scoring twice.
- Brighton recovered from 2-0 down to beat Manchester United 3-2 at Old Trafford in round three.
- Brighton are unbeaten in their last four meetings with Manchester City, recording two wins and two draws.
- The Seagulls have drawn their last two Premier League visits to the Etihad, 2-2 and 1-1.
- Brighton have never won away at Manchester City in 17 previous attempts.
- Brighton have failed to score in their last two matches, drawing 0-0 with Jablonec and losing 2-0 to Liverpool.
Manchester City vs Brighton prediction
Man City are favourites, but Maresca’s decision to rest several important players gives Brighton an opportunity.
Haaland’s absence is significant, particularly with the Norwegian responsible for such a large proportion of City’s goals this season.
However, the bigger concern may be at the other end.
City have conceded nine goals in four matches, and replacing several regular defenders could make them even more vulnerable.
Brighton haven’t scored in their last two games, although their attacking record across the season suggests that run is unlikely to continue indefinitely.
Hürzeler’s side have already produced an impressive comeback against Manchester United in this competition, and their recent record against City should provide encouragement.
Nevertheless, the hosts have considerable attacking depth.
Foden, Doku and Allan could cause problems for a Brighton defence dealing with injuries and potential rotation.
I expect Brighton to make things uncomfortable, but City may just have enough quality to progress.
Score prediction: Manchester City 3-2 Brighton
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