Manchester City have spent the last fortnight doing their best to hand Arsenal the Premier League title before Christmas. Nottingham Forest, meanwhile, look determined to make relegation a realistic concern before the clocks have properly gone back.

Something has to give at the City Ground on Saturday evening.

Enzo Maresca’s side were top of the Premier League just a few weeks ago, but consecutive defeats to Aston Villa and Brighton have allowed Arsenal to open up a three-point advantage.

City’s latest setback was particularly frustrating. They dominated Brighton at the Etihad, registering 21 shots and 1.92 expected goals (xG), yet somehow lost 1-0.

Wednesday’s 3-2 Champions League victory over RB Leipzig offered some relief. Erling Haaland scored the winner, but another two goals conceded will hardly have reassured Maresca about his defence.

Forest would probably welcome the luxury of worrying about conceding twice. Their immediate problem is finding the opposition’s net.

Oliver Glasner’s side have scored just six goals in nine Premier League matches, despite averaging 16.9 shots per game. Only Manchester United have attempted more shots, making Forest’s lack of cutting edge particularly alarming.

Last weekend’s 2-0 defeat at Brentford left them 19th, with just one point collected from their previous five league matches.

Glasner responded by publicly questioning his players’ commitment, effectively inviting anyone unwilling to embrace his methods to find somewhere else to play.

Whether that produces a reaction remains to be seen, but hosting Manchester City is hardly an ideal fixture for a team searching for confidence.

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Manchester City to win and over 1.5 total goals

City’s recent league results are concerning, but their underlying attacking performances suggest a return to winning ways is overdue.

Against Brighton, Maresca’s side created chances worth 1.92 xG without scoring. Their finishing let them down rather than their ability to break through the opposition.

Forest have lost five of their opening nine league matches and remain without a home victory. Their defensive organisation has improved in spells, but their inability to score leaves little margin for error.

City have already scored 20 Premier League goals this season, and their midweek victory in Germany should restore some confidence.

An away victory combined with at least two match goals looks more appealing than relying on City’s short match-result price alone.

Nottingham Forest under 1.5 team goals

Forest are producing a remarkable amount of attacking activity for a team with so little to show for it.

Their six league goals have come from chances worth approximately 14.34 xG. That is an enormous gap between opportunity and execution, and it helps explain why Glasner is growing increasingly frustrated.

The hosts have failed to score in five of their nine Premier League matches. Even more concerning, they have yet to register a league goal at the City Ground this season.

City’s defence has looked vulnerable recently, conceding 14 goals across their previous seven matches in all competitions. That makes a Forest goal possible, particularly if Morgan Gibbs-White can exploit space on the counterattack.

However, asking this struggling attack to score twice against a side likely to dominate possession feels ambitious.

Forest under 1.5 team goals provides some protection against City’s defensive lapses without requiring a clean sheet.

Erling Haaland to score anytime

Haaland ended City’s midweek Champions League encounter against RB Leipzig with another winning goal, taking his tally to 13 in nine career appearances against the German side.

The Norwegian remains the focal point of Maresca’s attack, and City’s creative players should provide him with opportunities against a Forest defence likely to spend long periods under pressure.

There is one interesting counterargument. Haaland has failed to score in his previous four appearances against Forest, suggesting this has not always been a particularly productive fixture for him.

However, Forest’s recent defensive performances and City’s ability to generate chances make Saturday an opportunity to end that run.

With Rayan Cherki, Jérémy Doku and Iliman Ndiaye capable of supplying chances from different areas, Haaland looks the strongest individual goalscorer option.

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How to watch Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City

• Date: Saturday, 7 November 2026

• Kick-off: 5:30pm GMT

• Competition: Premier League, Matchweek 10

• Venue: City Ground, Nottingham

• UK TV: Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports Premier League, Sky Go and NOW

• USA: NBC and Peacock

• Canada: DAZN and Fubo

Sky Sports coverage is scheduled to begin at 5pm GMT.

Nottingham Forest predicted lineup and team news

Predicted formation: 3-4-2-1

Predicted XI: Sels; Cunha, Milenković, Murillo; Aina, McAtee, Schlager, Williams; Ndoye, Gibbs-White; Delap.

Oliver Glasner has threatened changes following Forest’s disappointing defeat at Brentford, although his options are restricted by several injury concerns.

Nicolò Savona remains sidelined with a knee injury, while Nicolás Domínguez is doubtful with a muscular problem. Igor Jesus is also struggling with a calf injury and is unlikely to feature.

Liam Delap could retain his place despite failing to score in his last five starts. Chris Wood is pushing for an opportunity, having yet to start a Premier League match this season.

Former City midfielder James McAtee is expected to continue alongside Xaver Schlager, while Ola Aina and Daniel Muñoz are competing for a starting position at right wing-back.

Manchester City predicted lineup and team news

Predicted formation: 4-2-3-1

Predicted XI: Donnarumma; Nunes, Khusanov, Dias, Gvardiol; Bouaddi, Anderson; Ndiaye, Fernández, Doku; Haaland.

Enzo Maresca has a relatively healthy squad available, with Antoine Semenyo the most significant absentee. The winger remains sidelined with a leg injury and is not expected to return until December.

Rúben Dias and Joško Gvardiol are both pushing for starting places after beginning Wednesday’s Champions League victory over RB Leipzig on the bench.

Elliot Anderson is expected to feature against his former club following his summer move to Manchester City. The midfielder could partner Ayyoub Bouaddi, although Enzo Fernández is another option in a deeper role.

Erling Haaland should lead the attack, with Jérémy Doku and Iliman Ndiaye providing width. Rayan Cherki is also competing for a starting place after City’s demanding European fixture.

Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City stats

• Nottingham Forest sit 19th in the Premier League with six points from nine matches.

• Forest have won just one league match this season, drawing three and losing five.

• The hosts have collected only one point from their previous five Premier League fixtures.

• Forest have scored six league goals, the joint-lowest total in the division.

• Their six goals have come from approximately 14.34 expected goals.

• Forest average 16.9 shots per Premier League match, the second-highest figure in the competition.

• Glasner’s side have failed to score in five of their nine league games.

• Forest are winless and goalless in their opening five home league fixtures.

• Manchester City are second with 21 points, three behind Arsenal.

• City have won seven and lost two of their opening nine league matches.

• Maresca’s side have scored 20 Premier League goals this season.

• City have conceded 14 goals across their previous seven matches in all competitions.

• Erling Haaland has scored nine Premier League goals in nine appearances.

• Haaland has generated 6.57 xG in those nine league matches.

• Forest and City drew 2-2 in their previous meeting in March 2026.

• Manchester City won 2-1 on their last visit to the City Ground in December 2025.

Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City prediction

Manchester City’s recent Premier League performances have been far from convincing, but Nottingham Forest’s struggles present an opportunity for Maresca’s side to rediscover their domestic form.

The visitors have continued to create chances despite their defeats, and Wednesday’s Champions League victory should provide a timely confidence boost.

Forest’s biggest concern remains their finishing. Generating almost 14.5 expected goals while scoring just six suggests the problem extends beyond simply creating opportunities.

Glasner will hope his post-match criticism produces a response, and the City Ground crowd should make this an uncomfortable evening for the visitors.

City’s defensive vulnerabilities also offer Forest some encouragement. The visitors have conceded regularly in recent weeks, and Gibbs-White possesses the creativity to punish any lapses.

However, City should enjoy the majority of possession, and their attacking quality gives them several routes to goal. Haaland will be particularly dangerous if Forest allow him space inside the penalty area.

Forest could make this competitive, but City’s superior finishing and attacking options should ultimately prove decisive.

Final score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1-2 Manchester City

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