Scotland begin a new era in Ljubljana on Saturday afternoon as Sébastien Pocognoli takes charge for the first time.
The former Belgium international replaced Steve Clarke after Scotland’s World Cup campaign ended in the group stage. Pocognoli has wasted little time changing things either, naming seven uncapped players in his first squad.
Scotland actually won their opening World Cup match against Haiti before defeats to Morocco and Brazil sent them home. Before the tournament, they had beaten Curaçao 4-1 and Bolivia 4-0.
Slovenia didn’t make it to North America at all. They failed to win any of their six World Cup qualifiers and have managed just one victory across their last 10 matches.
They have another problem ahead of Saturday.
Benjamin Šeško has withdrawn with a recurring shin injury, taking Slovenia’s biggest attacking threat out of the equation.
Scotland aren’t arriving at full strength either. Scott McTominay and Ché Adams are among the absentees, while Kieran Tierney and Kenny McLean have also withdrawn.
There are easier places to begin an international management career, but Pocognoli has an opportunity to start with a result.
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What are the best betting tips for Slovenia vs Scotland?
Scotland draw no bet
There are enough unknowns around Scotland to make the straight away win slightly uncomfortable.
New manager. New system. Several new players. Several important absentees.
Taking the draw no bet gives Pocognoli’s side some protection while still backing Scotland to have the better chance of winning.
The hosts have won just once in their last 10 games. Their most recent five matches have brought a 1-1 draw with Sweden, a 1-0 defeat to Hungary, a 3-2 win over Montenegro, a 1-1 draw with Cyprus and a 2-1 defeat to Croatia.
Šeško’s absence is significant too.
A draw wouldn’t be a disaster on Pocognoli’s debut. If somebody does find a winner, though, Scotland look the more appealing side to back.
Under 2.5 goals
This doesn’t look like a fixture that needs many goals to decide it.
Slovenia scored just six times across their six World Cup qualifiers and failed to win any of them. They have also scored more than once in only one of their last five matches.
Now they are without Šeško.
Scotland’s attacking options have also been weakened. Adams is injured, McTominay is unavailable and Lawrence Shankland is also listed among their absentees.
That leaves Pocognoli considering the likes of Lyndon Dykes, Oli McBurnie and uncapped Sevilla striker Robbie Ure.
The opening Nations League fixture could therefore become a fairly cautious game, particularly if neither side wants to give the other something cheap early on.
A 0-0, 1-0 or 1-1 scoreline would hardly be surprising.
John McGinn 1+ shot on target
Scotland’s injury list could push John McGinn into an even more important attacking role.
McTominay has often provided Scotland’s biggest goal threat from midfield, but he misses this international window as he recovers following a recent heart procedure.
Someone has to make those runs beyond the striker.
McGinn is one of the obvious candidates.
It is also a relatively modest line.
We don’t need McGinn to score, and we don’t need Scotland to dominate. One effort testing the goalkeeper is enough.
Against a Slovenia side that have won only once in 10, McGinn should get opportunities to get involved around the box.
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What have the managers said?
Sébastien Pocognoli:
There are a few nerves for Pocognoli ahead of his first match as Scotland manager, although he sees that as a positive.
“I’m positively nervous.”
The Belgian has spoken about learning to deal with pressure during his playing career with Belgium’s highly rated generation and believes those experiences can help him with Scotland.
Pocognoli wants that pressure to drive his players rather than restrict them as Scotland begin another cycle following their World Cup disappointment.
His first squad already points towards change.
Seven uncapped players were initially selected, while 14 members of the group did not feature in Scotland’s World Cup squad.
Matjaž Kek:
Kek’s preparations have been disrupted by the loss of Šeško.
The striker has withdrawn from the entire international window after a shin problem flared up again, leaving Slovenia without their main centre-forward for matches against Scotland, North Macedonia and Switzerland.
There isn’t a sufficiently well-sourced fresh pre-match quote from Kek available yet, so I would keep this section factual rather than inserting an older comment that isn’t directly relevant to Saturday’s match.
What is Slovenia’s predicted team?
(4-4-2) Vekić; Karničnik, Drkušić, Bijol, Janža; Šešlar, Čerin, Elšnik, Stojanović; Šporar, Vipotnik.
Injured: Benjamin Šeško.
Šeško is the major absentee after withdrawing with his recurring shin problem. Slovenia’s most recent starting XI featured Vanja Drkušić and Jaka Bijol in defence, with Timi Max Elšnik and Adam Gnezda Čerin among the midfield options.
What is Scotland’s predicted team?
(4-2-3-1) Gunn; Patterson, Hendry, McKenna, Robertson; Gilmour, Ferguson; Gannon-Doak, McGinn, Doak; McBurnie.
Injured/Unavailable: Scott McTominay, Ché Adams, Kieran Tierney, Kenny McLean, Lawrence Shankland.
Pocognoli has plenty of decisions to make for his first XI.
McTominay is absent as he recovers from a heart procedure, while Adams was already ruled out through injury. Tierney and McLean subsequently withdrew and were replaced in the squad by Blackburn youngster Kristi Montgomery.
Oli McBurnie has earned his first Scotland call-up in five years after an impressive start to the Premier League season with Hull City. Robbie Ure is another option after scoring 20 goals in 20 appearances for Sirius before his summer move to Sevilla.
Slovenia vs Scotland prediction
This feels like a game where Scotland’s result matters more than the performance.
Pocognoli has barely had time to work with his squad, several established players are missing and there could be a very different look to the team.
Slovenia should therefore make life uncomfortable.
Their problem is at the other end. They weren’t prolific with Šeško available and now have to begin the Nations League without him.
That gives Scotland an opportunity.
The visitors still have Robertson, Gilmour, McGinn and a number of younger attacking players capable of producing something. It might not be particularly pretty, but Pocognoli could begin with a narrow win.
Score prediction: Slovenia 0-1 Scotland
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