Belgium have already beaten Italy in Rome this season. Do it again on Sunday, and they’ll have a place in the Nations League quarter-finals to show for it.

Fail, and another international campaign could end with the familiar sight of Kevin De Bruyne wondering where it all went wrong.

The Red Devils have spent much of the autumn threatening to throw away their qualification hopes. A 4-1 hammering against France in October left Mark van Bommel’s side facing an uphill battle, but Thursday’s 2-1 victory over Turkey has given them a lifeline.

It wasn’t particularly comfortable.

Arda Güler put Turkey ahead with a spectacular free kick before Belgium turned the match around. De Bruyne and Charles De Ketelaere struck before half-time, while goalkeeper Senne Lammens produced two important late saves to preserve the victory.

Those three points have transformed Sunday’s meeting in Brussels into a genuine qualification showdown.

Italy arrive with 10 points, one ahead of Belgium, following an impressive 3-1 victory over France at San Siro.

Roberto Mancini’s side recovered from an early setback to beat the French, with Francesco Pio Esposito scoring twice and Davide Frattesi also finding the net.

It was another statement performance from an Italian team that has rediscovered its confidence since Mancini returned for a second spell in charge.

The Azzurri lost 2-0 to Belgium in September but have responded with three wins and a draw from their following four Nations League fixtures.

They now have the advantage heading into the final group match.

A draw would be enough for Italy to finish above Belgium and reach the quarter-finals. The hosts, meanwhile, know they must win to guarantee progression.

That difference could shape the entire evening.

Belgium cannot afford to spend 90 minutes waiting for Italy to make a mistake. They need to take the initiative, particularly with Jeremy Doku back in the squad and De Bruyne capable of unlocking even the most organised defence.

Italy, however, have demonstrated their ability to punish opponents who commit too many players forward.

With both sides carrying attacking momentum into the contest, this looks far more interesting than a routine battle between two European heavyweights.

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What are the best betting tips for Belgium vs Italy?

Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals

Belgium’s recent results suggest Sunday’s match could become increasingly open, particularly if Italy take the lead.

Van Bommel’s side have scored eight goals in five Nations League matches, but they have also conceded six. Their defensive problems were exposed by France, who scored four times in the October meeting.

Italy have been more consistent in attack, scoring 11 goals in five group fixtures. Their 3-1 victory over France demonstrated just how dangerous they can be when space opens up between midfield and defence.

Belgium’s need for victory is particularly important here.

The hosts cannot afford to settle for a draw, meaning they may eventually have to commit additional players forward. That could create opportunities for Italy’s quick transitions and midfield runners.

With De Bruyne, Doku, De Ketelaere and Pio Esposito all capable of influencing the final third, both teams to score and over 2.5 goals looks a worthwhile combination.

The obvious concern is Italy’s incentive to protect a draw, but Belgium’s situation should prevent this from becoming an entirely cautious encounter.

Francesco Pio Esposito to score anytime

Italy have spent years searching for a striker capable of consistently delivering on the international stage.

Pio Esposito is making a convincing case that the search might finally be over.

The Inter forward scored twice against France on Thursday, taking his international tally to nine goals from his first 14 senior appearances.

His first goal demonstrated his movement inside the penalty area, while his second came from the penalty spot.

Belgium’s defence could provide further opportunities.

The Red Devils conceded four against France last month and needed several important saves from Lammens to secure Thursday’s victory in Turkey.

Esposito’s physical presence should occupy Belgium’s centre-backs, while the movement of Italy’s wide forwards and midfielders could create opportunities for him inside the box.

An anytime goalscorer selection carries more risk than simply backing Italy to score, but Esposito’s international form makes him an attractive option.

Italy to win and both teams to score

Belgium have home advantage and the greater need for victory, but that doesn’t necessarily make them the better betting proposition.

Italy have responded impressively to their opening defeat against the Red Devils, collecting 10 points from their last four Nations League fixtures.

Their performances against France have been particularly encouraging. Mancini’s side drew 1-1 in Paris before winning 3-1 in Milan, showing they can compete with elite opposition both home and away.

Belgium’s attacking quality makes a clean sheet difficult to predict. De Bruyne and Doku should create chances, particularly if the hosts dominate possession.

However, Italy could benefit from Belgium’s urgency.

If Van Bommel’s side become increasingly aggressive, the visitors should find space to exploit through Esposito and their midfield runners.

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How to watch Belgium vs Italy

• Date: Sunday, 15 November 2026

• Kick-off: 7:45pm GMT (8:45pm local time)

• Competition: UEFA Nations League, League A Group 1

• Venue: King Baudouin Stadium, Brussels

• UK: Amazon Prime Video

• Italy: Rai 1 and RaiPlay

• USA: FOX Sports coverage; check local listings

• Canada: Broadcaster not independently confirmed

Belgium predicted lineup and team news

Predicted formation: 4-3-3

Predicted XI: Lammens; Castagne, Ngoy, Mechele, De Cuyper; Tielemans, Lavia, De Bruyne; Moreira, De Ketelaere, Doku.

Mark van Bommel could make changes following Thursday’s victory over Turkey. Roméo Lavia is available again after serving a suspension and could replace Nicolas Raskin in midfield.

Romelu Lukaku remains a fitness concern after missing the trip to Turkey with a hip problem. The striker could return to the squad, although Charles De Ketelaere is expected to retain his place through the middle after scoring on Thursday.

Jeremy Doku’s return is a significant boost. The Manchester City winger missed Belgium’s opening four Nations League matches through injury but gives Van Bommel another dangerous option in wide areas.

Thibaut Courtois is not involved in the current international campaign, leaving Senne Lammens in contention to continue in goal. Youri Tielemans is expected to captain the side alongside Kevin De Bruyne in midfield.

Italy predicted lineup and team news

Predicted formation: 4-3-3

Predicted XI: Donnarumma; Kayode, Scalvini, Bastoni, Calafiori; Barella, Tonali, Frattesi; Vergara, Pio Esposito, Cambiaghi.

Roberto Mancini is expected to retain much of the side that defeated France on Thursday, although the short turnaround could influence his selection.

Francesco Pio Esposito should lead the attack after scoring twice against France. The Inter striker has established himself as one of Italy’s most important attacking players, while Davide Frattesi is expected to retain his midfield place.

Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Giacomo Raspadori and Moise Kean are unavailable through injury. Nicolò Zaniolo is also absent for personal reasons, reducing Mancini’s options in attack.

Michael Kayode could start at right-back, with Marco Palestra providing competition. Alessandro Bastoni and Giorgio Scalvini are potential central defensive partners, while Sandro Tonali and Nicolò Barella should provide the midfield platform.

Gianluigi Donnarumma remains Italy’s first-choice goalkeeper despite a difficult moment against France.

Belgium vs Italy stats

• Belgium have nine points from five Nations League matches.

• Italy have 10 points and sit above Belgium heading into the final group fixture.

• Belgium have won three and lost two of their five group matches.

• The Red Devils have scored eight goals and conceded six.

• Belgium defeated Turkey 2-1 away from home on Thursday.

• Van Bommel’s side lost 4-1 to France in October.

• Belgium have recorded two clean sheets in five Nations League matches.

• Italy have won three, drawn one and lost one of their five group fixtures.

• The Azzurri have scored 11 goals and conceded six.

• Italy are unbeaten in their last four Nations League matches.

• Mancini’s side defeated France 3-1 on Thursday.

• Francesco Pio Esposito scored twice in that victory.

• Esposito has scored nine goals in his first 14 senior international appearances.

• Davide Frattesi has scored 10 goals for Italy.

• Belgium defeated Italy 2-0 in Rome on 25 September.

• Italy have scored in each of their last four Nations League fixtures.

• Both teams have scored in four of Italy’s five group matches.

• Belgium need a victory to guarantee finishing above Italy.

• A draw would be enough for Italy to remain ahead of Belgium and secure quarter-final qualification.

Belgium vs Italy prediction

The Red Devils have the advantage of playing in Brussels, but Sunday’s match could become increasingly uncomfortable if they fail to make an early breakthrough.

Van Bommel’s side have enough attacking quality to trouble Italy. De Bruyne remains capable of producing decisive moments, while Doku’s pace should test the visitors’ defensive organisation.

However, Belgium’s defensive record raises questions about their ability to contain Italy for 90 minutes.

The visitors have looked increasingly confident since losing the reverse fixture, and their victory over France demonstrated the effectiveness of Mancini’s attacking approach.

Pio Esposito could be particularly important.

His movement and finishing ability should create problems for Belgium’s centre-backs, especially if the hosts begin pushing additional players forward.

Italy also have the luxury of knowing a draw is enough to finish above their opponents. That should allow Mancini to approach the match with greater patience.

Belgium, meanwhile, must take risks.

The hosts should create chances, and another clean sheet for Italy looks unlikely. But the visitors possess enough attacking quality to punish Belgium when space opens up.

A draw would be a perfectly respectable result for Italy, yet their recent performances suggest they are capable of going one better.

Score prediction: Belgium 1-2 Italy

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