Portugal begin the defence of their Nations League title when Wales visit Lisbon on Thursday night.
There has been a major change since Portugal’s World Cup ended with a 1-0 defeat to eventual champions Spain in the last 16.
Roberto Martínez has gone. Jorge Jesus is now in charge, and his first assignment comes against a Wales side returning to the top tier of the Nations League.
Cristiano Ronaldo is still here, too.
The 41-year-old has been included in Jesus’ first squad despite admitting after the World Cup that another appearance at the tournament is unlikely.
Portugal can also call upon Bruno Fernandes, Vitinha, Rafael Leão, Pedro Neto and Bernardo Silva.
Wales earned promotion to League A without losing a game during Bellamy’s first Nations League campaign.
Their reward? Portugal, Denmark and Erling Haaland’s Norway.
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Portugal to win & over 1.5 goals
Portugal should win this game. However, their likely short outright price makes combining the victory with over 1.5 match goals more appealing.
Jesus inherits a squad packed with attacking options.
Ronaldo, Rafael Leão, Pedro Neto, João Félix, Francisco Conceição, Gonçalo Ramos and Fábio Silva are all included.
Bruno Fernandes, Bernardo Silva and Vitinha provide even more creativity from midfield.
Wales will also arrive without two centre-backs.
Joe Rodon and Dylan Lawlor have both been ruled out through injury.
Wales should be more competitive than the odds might suggest. They did not lose a game during their last Nations League campaign.
Even so, Portugal’s attacking depth should eventually tell.
Bruno Fernandes 2+ shots
Ronaldo will attract most of the attention around the Portugal attack, but Bruno Fernandes gives us another route into this game.
The Manchester United midfielder has been included in Jesus’ first squad and should continue to have plenty of freedom in attacking areas.
Portugal are likely to spend long periods in the Welsh half.
That should suit Fernandes.
He is happy shooting from outside the box and regularly arrives around the edge of the penalty area when Portugal sustain attacks.
Cristiano Ronaldo to score
Yes, he’s 41. No, Portugal aren’t finished with Cristiano Ronaldo just yet.
Jesus has selected him for his first squad and has been clear about how he intends to handle the Portugal captain.
The new manager said Ronaldo’s performances will determine whether he plays, adding that his status will not influence selection decisions.
Ronaldo remains the leading goalscorer in men’s international football with 146 goals. He also knows Wales rather well.
The last time these countries met was the Euro 2016 semi-final. Ronaldo opened the scoring as Portugal won 2-0 before going on to lift the trophy.
He is also likely to be involved from the penalty spot.
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What have the managers said?
Jorge Jesus
Jesus has already made it clear that reputation alone will not decide his Portugal team.
Speaking when announcing his first squad, the new boss addressed Cristiano Ronaldo’s role directly.
“If he performs, he plays; if not, he doesn’t.”
Ronaldo has been selected at the age of 41 and remains Portugal’s record goalscorer with 146 international goals.
Jesus has plenty of attacking options available, but all eyes will inevitably be on whether Ronaldo starts the first match of his reign.
Craig Bellamy
Bellamy is looking forward to testing Wales against Europe’s top nations after guiding them back into League A.
“I love the Nations League as I think it makes such sense to me.”
Bellamy also acknowledged the considerable step up in opposition.
“It’s going to be a test for us, but it’s going to be a test for me too.”
Wales have four matches packed into this international window. Bellamy believes the schedule will test the depth of his squad, particularly with injuries already taking their toll.
Joe Rodon and Dylan Lawlor are both missing, although Harry Wilson, Jordan James and Ben Cabango are back in the squad.
What is Portugal’s predicted team?
(4-3-3) Diogo Costa; Dalot, Rúben Dias, Inácio, Nuno Mendes; João Neves, Vitinha, Bruno Fernandes; Pedro Neto, Ronaldo, Rafael Leão.
Jesus has kept plenty of experience around for his first international window.
Ronaldo remains available to lead the attack, while Portugal have plenty of alternatives if Jesus wants something different through the middle or out wide.
What is Wales’ predicted team?
(3-4-2-1) Darlow; Cabango, Mepham, Davies; Neco Williams, Ampadu, Jordan James, Thomas; Harry Wilson, Brennan Johnson; Daniel James.
Injured: Joe Rodon, Dylan Lawlor.
Rodon and Lawlor are both ruled out, leaving Bellamy short of options in central defence.
There is better news elsewhere.
Harry Wilson and Jordan James return after missing the June friendlies, while Ben Cabango is also back. Cardiff forward Cian Ashford has received his first senior Wales call-up.
Portugal vs Wales prediction
Wales deserve more respect than simply being treated as cannon fodder here.
Bellamy guided them through their previous Nations League campaign unbeaten. They topped their League B group ahead of Türkiye to earn promotion back to the top tier.
This is a sizeable step up, though.
Portugal are the defending Nations League champions and the only country to have won the competition twice. They have also retained an attack containing Ronaldo and plenty of quality around him.
Rodon’s absence makes an already difficult assignment tougher for Wales.
There could be a few early teething problems as Portugal adapt to Jesus, and Bellamy’s side have enough pace to cause problems on the break.
However, the hosts should have too much attacking quality over 90 minutes.
Score prediction: Portugal 2-0 Wales
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