After a frustrating start to their World Cup campaign, Ecuador head into their final Group E match against Germany knowing that anything less than a win brings their tournament to an abrupt end.
A narrow 1-0 defeat to the Ivory Coast was followed by a shock goalless draw against Curaçao, leaving La Tri with just one point from their opening two games and facing an uphill battle to reach the knockout rounds.
Germany, meanwhile, arrive in New Jersey with far fewer concerns. Julian Nagelsmann’s men have already secured top spot in the group after opening with a ruthless 7-1 victory over Curaçao before coming from behind to beat Ivory Coast 2-1.
With six points from six and first place already guaranteed, the four-time world champions are safely through to the Round of 32.
That does not mean Ecuador can expect any favours. Germany have won 11 consecutive matches and have made it clear they intend to maintain their momentum heading into the knockout stages rather than rotate heavily or ease off the intensity.
The permutations are straightforward enough. Ecuador must beat Germany and hope results elsewhere go their way, with Ivory Coast’s meeting against Curaçao also likely to have a major impact on the race for qualification.
Even with the expanded tournament offering places for the best third-placed teams, Ecuador’s destiny is no longer entirely in their own hands.
There is also a sense of history surrounding this fixture. The two nations famously met at the 2006 World Cup, when Germany defeated Ecuador 3-0 in the final group game before both sides progressed to the knockout rounds.
Twenty years later, Ecuador once again find Germany standing between them and the next stage — only this time, the margin for error has completely disappeared.
How to watch Ecuador vs Germany
Ecuador vs Germany kicks off at 21:00 BST on Thursday, June 25, at the New York/New Jersey Stadium.
The match will be shown live in the UK on BBC One. Fans can also stream the game via BBC iPlayer and the BBC Sport website.
In the United States, the game will be available on FOX or FS1. Spanish-language coverage will be shown on Telemundo and Universo, while Peacock will provide streaming options.
In Canada, World Cup coverage is available on TSN and RDS. Select matches will also be broadcast on CTV, while streaming is available through TSN, RDS, CTV and Crave.
Ecuador team news
Ecuador are unlikely to stray too far from the side that held Curaçao to a draw, despite knowing they need all three points against Germany.
Sebastián Beccacece has generally trusted a settled core throughout qualifying and the opening stages of the tournament, and a match of this importance is unlikely to be the time for wholesale changes.
The bigger question is how aggressive Ecuador choose to be.
A draw would leave La Tri heading home, while victory is the only result that gives them a realistic chance of extending their World Cup campaign.
That may force Ecuador onto the front foot earlier than they would normally like against one of the strongest teams in the competition.
Much will depend on Moisés Caicedo in midfield. The Chelsea man has been Ecuador’s driving force throughout the tournament and will be expected to set the tempo both with and without the ball.
Ecuador also need more creativity in the final third after failing to score in either of their opening two matches.
One thing they cannot afford is another cautious start. Falling behind to Germany would leave Ecuador chasing a game against a side that has looked ruthless whenever space opens up.
Ecuador expected XI: Galíndez – Preciado, Torres, Hincapié, Estupiñán – Caicedo, Gruezo, Franco – Sarmiento, Plata, Rodríguez.
Germany team news
Germany have already done the hard work.
Two wins from two have secured top spot in Group E, allowing Julian Nagelsmann to approach this match without the pressure hanging over most teams on the final matchday.
That could open the door for a handful of changes, although Germany have shown little sign of easing off during their impressive winning run.
Nagelsmann may choose to freshen up certain areas with the knockout rounds on the horizon, but maintaining momentum will be just as important.
Germany have scored nine goals across their opening two matches and will be keen to carry that form into the next stage.
Jamal Musiala has been one of the standout performers so far, while Florian Wirtz continues to provide creativity between the lines. Their movement and technical quality could cause Ecuador plenty of problems if Germany control possession as expected.
Even with qualification already secured, Germany are not a side known for taking their foot off the gas. Ecuador need points to survive, but Germany will still be determined to finish the group stage with a perfect record.
Germany expected XI: Neuer – Kimmich, Tah, Rüdiger, Mittelstädt – Andrich, Groß – Sané, Musiala, Wirtz – Havertz.
Ecuador vs Germany stats
- Ecuador are still searching for their first goal of the tournament after failing to score in either of their opening two Group E matches.
- Germany have scored nine goals across their first two games, including a 7-1 victory over Curaçao.
- Ecuador have won just one of their last five World Cup matches dating back to the 2022 tournament.
- The last World Cup meeting between these nations came in 2006, when Germany recorded a 3-0 victory in the final group match.
- Germany are unbeaten in their last 11 international matches and have scored in every game during that run.
- Three of Ecuador’s last five international matches have produced under 2.5 goals.
- Germany have kept clean sheets in four of their last six matches in all competitions.
Ecuador vs Germany prediction
The problem Ecuador have is that needing a result against Germany is about as difficult as it gets at this World Cup.
Sebastián Beccacece’s side are still alive heading into the final group match, but only just. A defeat to Ivory Coast and a frustrating draw with Curaçao have left them with no margin for error.
The biggest concern for Ecuador is that they now need to do something they have struggled to do throughout the tournament.
They need to score a goal.
La Tri have failed to find the net in either of their opening two matches, and that is hardly ideal preparation for facing a Germany side that has looked sharp at both ends of the pitch.
Normally, Ecuador are at their best when they can stay compact, defend aggressively and wait for opportunities on the counter-attack.
Against Germany, they may not have that luxury.
If Ivory Coast take control of their match against Curaçao, Ecuador could find themselves needing to chase the game. That would suit Germany perfectly.
The Germans have already secured top spot in Group E, but there is little evidence to suggest they will take things easy. Julian Nagelsmann’s side have won 11 matches in a row and have scored nine goals in just two games at this tournament.
The encouraging sign for Ecuador is that Germany may rotate a few players with the knockout rounds around the corner.
The problem is that Germany’s squad depth is among the best in the competition. The players coming into the side would still expect to challenge for places in most international teams.
Ecuador should make this competitive. They have enough quality in midfield to cause problems and enough motivation to keep fighting until the final whistle.
Ultimately, though, Germany look too strong.
Prediction: Ecuador 0-2 Germany
