Japan and Sweden head into their final Group F match with a place in the World Cup knockout rounds still up for grabs for both sides.
After two games, Japan sit second in the group on four points, level with the Netherlands but behind on goals scored.
Hajime Moriyasu’s side opened their campaign with an impressive 2-2 draw against the Dutch before brushing aside Tunisia 4-0 to put themselves in a strong position heading into the final round.
Sweden’s journey has been far less straightforward. Graham Potter’s team made a flying start with a 5-1 victory over Tunisia, only to come crashing back down to earth in a heavy 5-1 defeat against the Netherlands.
That leaves the Swedes third in the group on three points, knowing they still have their fate firmly in their own hands.
The situation is simple enough. A win for Japan would guarantee their place in the Round of 32 and could even see them finish top of Group F, depending on the result between the Netherlands and Tunisia. A draw may also be enough for the Samurai Blue to progress, while defeat would leave them relying on other results and goal difference.
For Sweden, victory is the clearest route to qualification. Three points would send them into the knockout rounds and lift them above Japan, while anything less would leave them hoping to squeeze through as one of the tournament’s best third-placed teams.
With eight third-place finishers advancing under the expanded format, that safety net remains available, but it is not one Potter’s side will want to rely on.
With Japan looking organised and efficient, and Sweden boasting the attacking threat of Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres, all the ingredients are there for a tense and decisive night in Dallas.
How to watch Japan vs Sweden
Japan vs Sweden kicks off at 00:00 BST on Friday, June 26, at the Dallas Stadium.
The match will be shown live in the UK on BBC Two. Fans can also stream the game via BBC iPlayer and the BBC Sport website.
In the United States, the game will be available on FOX or FS1. Spanish-language coverage will be shown on Telemundo and Universo, while Peacock will provide streaming options.
In Canada, World Cup coverage is available on TSN and RDS. Select matches will also be broadcast on CTV, while streaming is available through TSN, RDS, CTV and Crave.
Japan team news
Hajime Moriyasu has little reason to make significant changes ahead of Japan’s biggest game of the group stage.
The Samurai Blue have collected four points from their opening two matches and have arguably been one of the most balanced teams in Group F. A draw against the Netherlands was followed by a dominant victory over Tunisia, leaving Japan in a strong position heading into the final round.
With qualification within touching distance, continuity feels like the most likely approach.
Japan have looked organised defensively while still carrying plenty of attacking threat, particularly in transition. As a result, Moriyasu is unlikely to abandon a formula that has served his side well so far.
The biggest challenge may be managing the occasion. Japan know a draw could be enough to secure their place in the knockout rounds, but playing for a point can often be a dangerous mindset in tournament football.
Japan expected XI: Suzuki – Tomiyasu, Itakura, Ito – Doan, Sano, Tanaka, Nakamura – Ito, Kamada – Ueda.
Sweden team news
Sweden arrive knowing this is effectively a knockout match.
Graham Potter’s side responded brilliantly after their opening win over Tunisia, but the heavy defeat against the Netherlands means there is no margin for error heading into the final group game.
The big question is whether Potter sticks with the same approach or looks to make tactical adjustments after conceding five goals last time out.
Despite that setback, Sweden still possess plenty of attacking quality. Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres remain the focal points going forward.
Potter may be tempted to add extra attacking options, particularly if the match remains level deep into the second half.
Sweden know that a draw could leave their qualification hopes hanging by a thread, while victory would send them above Japan and into the knockout places.
Sweden expected XI: Nordfeldt – Lagerbielke, Hien, Lindelof – Elangs, Nygren, Karlstrom, Ayari, Gudmundsson – Gyokores, Isak.
Japan vs Sweden stats
- Japan are unbeaten in Group F after drawing 2-2 with the Netherlands and beating Tunisia 4-0.
- Both teams have scored six goals in the tournament so far.
- Japan have kept one clean sheet in their opening two matches.
- Sweden have conceded five goals in their only defeat of the competition.
- Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres remain Sweden’s biggest attacking threats heading into the final group game.
- Three of Japan’s last five international matches have produced over 2.5 goals.
- Four of Sweden’s last five matches in all competitions have featured over 2.5 goals.
Japan vs Sweden prediction
Moriyasu’s Japan have put themselves in an excellent position heading into the final group game, but their work is not done yet.
A draw against the Netherlands and a convincing win over Tunisia have shown exactly why many people view the Samurai Blue as one of the most dangerous teams outside the traditional favourites.
They look organised, disciplined and capable of hurting opponents in transition.
The challenge for Sweden is that they arrive needing a result after their heavy defeat to the Netherlands.
That loss does not suddenly make them a poor side. Far from it.
The Swedes were excellent against Tunisia and still possess plenty of attacking quality through Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres.
The problem is that they may have little choice but to chase the game at some stage.
Japan know a draw could be enough to secure qualification, which means they can afford to stay patient and wait for openings to appear. Sweden do not have the same luxury.
If the Scandinavians commit bodies forward, they risk leaving space for Japan to exploit on the counter-attack.
That feels like the key battle.
Sweden have enough quality to create chances and should cause Japan problems during the 90 minutes. However, Japan have looked the more balanced side throughout the tournament and seem better equipped to handle the pressure of the occasion.
Prediction: Japan 2-3 Sweden
