World Cup 2026, featuring an additional 16 teams, opens up more possibilities for dark horses to spring a surprise.
The door is open to ridiculous scorelines like Argentina 8-0 Jordan, Germany 6-0 Curacao, or, as was the case in 2018, England 6-1 Panama. The class of 2026 features the likes of Cape Verde, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Uzbekistan.
There’s also a spot for South Africa, who we haven’t seen since Siphiwe Tshabalala gave the host nation lift off with one of the most memorable goals in World Cup history.
Unfortunately, they all fall firmly into the category of minnows, even if the Saudis did stun Argentina at the last edition.
The role of a dark horse is reserved for an outsider that boasts a realistic chance of lifting the trophy against the odds. By definition, even seasoned pros in Germany, who are available at 14/1, rank as an outsider.
Argentina and Brazil are always a threat at a major tournament, yet third in the South American stakes are Marcelo Bielsa’s Uruguay at 80/1.
Japan flies the flag for East Asia at 100/1, while Africa’s best hopes are allegedly Morocco at 150/1. The latter finished fourth in Qatar. On the other hand, the best Japan have managed is the Round of 16.
What actually defines a World Cup dark horse?
Every major tournament throws up surprise stories. Greece winning Euro 2004 remains the gold standard for rank outsiders, yet it also underlines how rare that path has become.
They strangled matches into submission and lived off of set pieces. It worked back then, but modern tournaments are far less forgiving.
Recent World Cup dark horses have followed a different blueprint. Ghana’s run to the semi-finals in 2010 combined athleticism and a kind draw. Morocco went as far in 2022, pairing defensive structure with ruthless efficiency in tight matches.
True dark horses are not minnows. They are well-coached, physically robust, and play with a unique footballing identity. Marcelo Bielsa’s Uruguay have that potential, while Walid Regragui’s Morocco have already realised it.
Can Uruguay win the 2026 World Cup?
For a nation of so few people in the grand scheme of things, Uruguay shouldn’t be a part of the conversation. Yet this proud footballing nation has lifted the World Cup twice and churns out unbelievable talent.
Diego Forlan, Diego Godin and Luis Suarez – minus the biting – may be the standouts this century. They’ve now got a coach of the same calibre.
Bielsa has stripped Uruguay back to intensity and purpose. They press aggressively, defend on the front foot, and play at a tempo that unsettles more technical sides
Tournament football suits them. They are comfortable without the ball, ruthless in transition, and happy to turn games into physical contests.
Bielsa ball can be brilliant at its best. It’s largely unsustainable for the same group of players to keep it up over prolonged periods of time, but this is just one tournament, and international football is different.
A 5-1 defeat to the United States and a 0-0 draw with Mexico pose major questions. It also left the natives restless. 80/1 is a mighty price, but it might be a bit of a romantic pick.
Can Norway win the 2026 World Cup?
Norway’s case is both simple and uncomfortable. They don’t have depth or don’t dominate games. They don’t pretend to be something they’re not. However, they have Erling Haaland. Martin Odegaard and Alexander Sortloth aren’t bad options, either.
Knockout football has always rewarded teams who can survive long spells without control and still finish chances when they appear. Any side with that strapping blonde goal machine up front stands a chance of doing that.
France should top their group, but second place is there to be taken if Norway stay disciplined and avoid chasing games.
Their clash with Senegal is particularly interesting, as they’re often the African side painted as dark horses in recent years. But there’s always chaos about their play, so they’re prime candidates to lose track of Haaland in the box.
If Haaland is isolated or injured, the whole thing collapses. Creativity is thin, and chasing a match is not their strength. But at 1501/, you can happily back them on Betfair Exchange and hope for a run to the World Cup quarter-finals.
Image credit: RuinDig/Yuki Uchida, licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0
Can Japan win the 2026 World Cup?
Japan always feel like they’re one tournament away from something bigger. They’re tidy, drilled, and technically sound, yet they keep hitting the same ceiling.
Japanese teams press well, keep their shape, and don’t panic when games drift. There’s rarely been a superstar to build around, which oddly helps.
Beating Germany and Spain in 2022 wasn’t a fluke; it was execution. Japan waited, pressed at the right moments, and took chances when they appeared.
October’s 3-2 win against Brazil continued that trend. Their squad that day featured Monaco’s Takumi Minamino, Leeds United’s AO Tanaka, Real Sociedad’s Takefusa Kubo and Eintracht Frankfurt’s Ritsu Doan, among others.
At 100/1, it’s easy to see the appeal. They won’t beat themselves, they won’t implode, and they’ll frustrate plenty of bigger names.
Winning the whole thing still feels a stretch, but another deep run wouldn’t surprise anyone, so they’re a solid contender for an exchange bet.
Can Colombia win the 2026 World Cup?
We’ve saved the best for last here. Why? Because Colombia at 250/1 is absolutely criminal, ignorant work from the bookmakers. They’re largely unbeaten in three years and boast some top players.
They’ve beaten Brazil, Spain and Germany in the past two years, drawn with Argentina twice, and pushed them all the way to extra time in the Copa América final.
Luis Díaz is the obvious headline, direct, relentless, and happy to take responsibility. James Rodríguez has reinvented himself as a conductor rather than a luxury.
Davinson Sánchez, Yerry Mina, Jefferson Lerma. Not elegant, but hard to move. Bologna’s Jhon Lucumi is wanted by Premier League clubs, while Crystal Palace star Daniel Munoz will also make the cut.
There’s also an emotion attached to South American teams, and that’s cost a lot of them dearly in the past. Under Nestor Lorenzo, there’s a positive environment and a fair amount of discipline.
Portugal present a tough test, but if they can beat Uzbekistan and finish second, which they will, it may open up a nice pathway. They could face a third-place side and could avoid at least a few of Argentina, France, England, and Portugal in the early knock-out rounds.
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