The Premier League returns on Saturday lunchtime with Arsenal hosting Leeds at the Emirates, and this suddenly looks a bit more awkward for the champions than it probably did when the fixtures came out.
Arsenal went into the international break after being thumped 3-0 by Brighton, ending what had otherwise been an excellent start to their title defence. Mikel Arteta’s side have won four of their five league games, but the break hasn’t exactly been kind to his squad either.
Leeds, meanwhile, haven’t lost a Premier League game yet.
Daniel Farke’s side have taken nine points from their opening five matches, including a 4-1 win over Newcastle, and arrive at the Emirates fifth in the table. They’ve been stubborn, organised and considerably better than anyone who had them pencilled in for a relegation scrap might want to admit.
Arsenal should still win this. But anyone expecting Leeds to turn up, admire the Emirates and politely hand over three points hasn’t watched much of them this season.
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What are the best betting tips for Arsenal vs Leeds?
Arsenal to win
There are enough reasons to be slightly wary of Arsenal here.
They’ve just been beaten 3-0, their injury list isn’t particularly pleasant and Leeds haven’t lost all season.
I’m backing them anyway.
The Brighton result was Arsenal’s first league defeat of the campaign after four straight wins, and the Emirates remains a very different assignment for Leeds. Arsenal have also won each of their last seven Premier League meetings with Saturday’s visitors, scoring 24 times in the process.
Leeds deserve plenty of credit for their start. Their unbeaten record isn’t some technicality built entirely on scraping draws against poor sides either; beating Newcastle 4-1 was a proper statement.
But Arsenal are champions for a reason.
Even with a few players missing, there’s still enough quality in this squad to get the job done at home.
Bukayo Saka 2+ shots on target
If Leeds are going to sit compact and make Arsenal work for it, Saka should see plenty of the ball around the box.
He already has three Premier League goals this season and has registered nine shots on target across his five appearances. That’s comfortably enough volume to make two here interesting.
There is also a chance Arsenal’s injury situation makes him even more important than usual.
You don’t necessarily need him to score, which is why I prefer this to the anytime market. Let him spend 90 minutes cutting inside and testing James Trafford and we’ll take our chances.
Leeds under 1.5 team goals
Leeds being unbeaten doesn’t mean we suddenly need to pretend they’re 1970 Brazil.
They’ve been impressive, but they’ve scored more than once in only one of their five league games so far – that slightly bonkers 4-1 win over Newcastle. Their other four have produced three Leeds goals combined.
Arsenal have defensive problems, particularly with William Saliba sidelined, so I wouldn’t be desperate to back a clean sheet.
Keeping Leeds below two feels much more forgiving.
A 2-1 Arsenal win gets us there. So does 1-0, 2-0 or 3-1. For a side expected to spend long spells without the ball at the Emirates, asking Leeds to score twice feels like a fairly big ask.
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Where can I watch Arsenal vs Leeds?
Arsenal vs Leeds kicks off at 12:30 pm BST on Saturday, October 10 at the Emirates Stadium.
In the UK, the match is live on TNT Sports 1 and TNT Sports Ultimate, with streaming available through HBO Max.
What is Arsenal’s predicted team?
(4-2-3-1): Raya; Timber, Mosquera, Gabriel, Calafiori; Bruno Guimarães, Rice; Saka, Ødegaard, Eze; Gyökeres.
Injured: William Saliba, Christos Tzolis.
Doubts: Declan Rice, Kai Havertz, Ben White, Cristhian Mosquera, Ezri Konsa, Piero Hincapié, Max Dowman.
What is Leeds’ predicted team?
(3-5-2): Trafford; Justin, Elvedi, Muharemović; Bogle, Tanaka, Ampadu, Stach, Gudmundsson; Okafor, Calvert-Lewin.
Injured: Joe Rodon, Mateo Joseph.
Doubts: Harry Wilson.
Arsenal vs Leeds prediction
Leeds have earned the right to be taken seriously.
Five games unbeaten, nine points and only three league goals conceded is a very decent return. Arsenal coming into this after a 3-0 defeat and an international break full of injury problems makes it more interesting still.
But I still can’t get away from Arsenal at home.
Leeds should frustrate them and I wouldn’t expect another 5-0 like we saw in this fixture last season. Eventually, though, Arsenal’s extra quality should tell.
Score prediction: Arsenal 2-0 Leeds
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