Scotland finally have something to build on under Sébastien Pocognoli.
Saturday’s 2-0 win over North Macedonia gave the new boss his first victory, with Kieron Bowie opening the scoring before John McGinn converted from the penalty spot. The only frustration was another red card, this time for Scott McKenna.
Tonight brings Scotland full circle. Pocognoli’s reign started with a 0-0 draw against Slovenia in Ljubljana, but Scotland were comfortably the more threatening side and finished that game with an xG advantage of 2.16 to 0.47.
Both sides now have four points in Group B1. Slovenia sit second on goal difference, with Scotland just behind them, so this feels like a pretty significant night at Hampden.
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What are the best betting tips for Scotland vs Slovenia?
Scotland to win
The results haven’t always shown it, but Scotland’s performances under Pocognoli have been more encouraging than four points from three games suggests.
They created enough chances to win the reverse fixture in Slovenia and then had their first home game against Switzerland effectively ripped up by Jack Hendry’s early red card.
Saturday was different.
Even after Scott McKenna was dismissed late on, Scotland comfortably beat North Macedonia 2-0. They had 25 attempts and generated 3.45 xG, which is a level of attacking output we haven’t seen often enough from Scotland.
Slovenia are a step up, but they’re hardly flying either. Boštjan Cesar’s side lost 2-1 in Switzerland on Saturday and have four points from their opening three games.
There is also a strong historical trend here. Scotland have faced Slovenia six times without losing, winning twice and drawing four. Slovenia have never scored away to Scotland.
At Hampden, Scotland look worth backing to edge it.
Kieron Bowie 1+ shot on target
Bowie finally got Scotland’s goalscoring drought out of the way in Skopje.
And he didn’t hang around.
The Hibernian striker hammered Scotland ahead after eight minutes, scoring his first senior international goal and rewarding Pocognoli for keeping faith with him.
More importantly for this market, Scotland are starting to create chances for their forwards.
They generated 2.16 xG in the first meeting with Slovenia before following it with 25 attempts against North Macedonia. The finishing has been the problem rather than getting into dangerous positions.
Bowie should again lead the line tonight.
One effort on target feels a much more sensible angle than asking him to score in consecutive internationals.
Slovenia under 1.5 team goals
Scotland’s two red cards have made their defensive numbers look worse than the performances themselves.
They kept clean sheets against Slovenia and North Macedonia and have conceded three goals in three Nations League games. All three came against Switzerland after Hendry was sent off inside the opening 11 minutes.
Slovenia haven’t exactly been free-scoring either.
They’ve managed three goals across their opening three group matches and are without Benjamin Šeško tonight after the Manchester United striker withdrew from the squad with a shin problem.
There’s another fairly remarkable stat here too: Slovenia have played twice in Scotland and are yet to score a goal.
If Scotland can manage to keep 11 players on the pitch this time, Slovenia scoring twice looks a big ask.
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Where can I watch Scotland vs Slovenia?
Scotland host Slovenia at Hampden Park tonight, Tuesday, October 6, with kick-off at 7:45 pm BST.
The game will be shown live in the UK on BBC Two and BBC Scotland. It can also be streamed through BBC iPlayer and the BBC Sport website. Coverage on BBC Two begins at 7:30 pm.
What have the managers said?
Sébastien Pocognoli:
Saturday’s victory was an important one for Pocognoli after taking just one point from his opening two games.
“It was important because it was the first win.”
The Scotland boss believes his side still have plenty of room to develop, despite the improvement shown in Skopje.
“After three weeks together everything has to be better. We still have a lot to improve.”
Scotland’s finishing has been questioned after creating plenty of chances across Pocognoli’s first three games, but he isn’t particularly concerned.
“We create more chances, that’s positive with a new group.”
Billy Gilmour is also set to make his 50th appearance for Scotland tonight, and Pocognoli has been impressed by the Napoli midfielder throughout the international window.
“He’s playing very well since the first day of the camp.”
Boštjan Cesar:
Cesar knows Slovenia will have to improve on the reverse fixture if they are going to leave Hampden with anything.
“The way Scotland play, we need to be very disciplined.”
The Slovenia boss believes his side will need to find the right balance rather than simply sitting deep.
“We need to find a balance with our attack and defence.”
And he isn’t underestimating the size of the task.
“We need to have a fantastic 90 minutes to match them.”
What is Scotland’s predicted team?
(3-4-2-1) Gunn; Welsh, Hendry, Binks; Gannon-Doak, Ferguson, Gilmour, Robertson; McGinn, McBurnie; Bowie.
Suspended: Scott McKenna.
Unavailable: Scott McTominay, Ché Adams.
Jack Hendry returns after serving the suspension he picked up against Switzerland, which is well timed given McKenna’s red card in Skopje.
Billy Gilmour is expected to start and win his 50th Scotland cap, while Bowie should keep his place after opening his international account on Saturday.
Findlay Curtis has also been promoted from the Under-21 squad after registering four assists in their 5-2 win over Azerbaijan.
What is Slovenia’s predicted team?
(5-4-1) Oblak; Karničnik, Drkušić, Bijol, Zec, Janža; Matko, Zabukovnik, Lovrić, Šturm; Vipotnik.
Injured/unavailable: Benjamin Šeško, Benjamin Verbič, Zan Zaletel, Nik Prelec.
Šeško is the big absence. The Manchester United striker withdrew from the squad after suffering a recurrence of a shin injury, leaving Swansea City’s Žan Vipotnik as the likely starting striker.
Jan Oblak remains Slovenia’s biggest obstacle at the other end. Scotland created chances against him in Ljubljana but couldn’t find the finish, something Pocognoli will hope changes at Hampden.
Scotland vs Slovenia prediction
This feels like a good opportunity for Scotland to finish Pocognoli’s first international window on a high.
The reverse fixture finished goalless, but Scotland were the better side. They’ve since shown they can turn that dominance into goals with Saturday’s performance in Skopje.
Slovenia will make it awkward. With Oblak behind a compact defence, Scotland probably aren’t going to get the space they enjoyed against North Macedonia.
But no Šeško significantly reduces Slovenia’s threat going the other way.
Scotland have created enough chances under Pocognoli to deserve more than four points. Tonight, home advantage can help turn another promising performance into a second consecutive victory.
Score prediction: Scotland 2-0 Slovenia
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