Sunderland probably didn’t need a three-week international break after scoring three times at the Etihad, but it has at least given everyone a chance to recover from the experience of conceding five.
Régis Le Bris’ side return to the Stadium of Light having taken four points from their first five Premier League games. The results haven’t been spectacular, but Arsenal and Manchester City accounting for two of the defeats adds a bit of context.
Brighton are a different story. Fabian Hürzeler’s side sit third with 10 points and have already scored 16 league goals. They signed off for the break by beating Arsenal 3-0, a week after putting five past Coventry.
The slight problem for Brighton is that half their squad appears to have spent the break in a treatment room. Sunderland have problems of their own, including the loss of Brian Brobbey, so Saturday could look very different to the teams we saw in September.
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What are the best betting tips for Sunderland vs Brighton?
Brighton over 1.5 team goals
I’d love to have found an angle here that didn’t involve betting on Brighton scoring against Sunderland.
Unfortunately, they’ve made it fairly difficult.
The Seagulls have scored 16 goals in five Premier League matches, including four against Aston Villa, four at Chelsea, five at Coventry and three against Arsenal. Only Leeds have kept them below three so far.
Sunderland have already shown they can be difficult to break down at the Stadium of Light, but Manchester City exposed them badly before the break.
Daniel Ballard is also doubtful with a hamstring problem, while Brobbey’s injury removes one of Sunderland’s best ways of keeping pressure away from their own box.
Brighton don’t necessarily have to win for this to land.
Two goals will do.
Both teams to score
This is where Sunderland’s performance at the Etihad matters.
They lost 5-3, which isn’t a result anyone will be framing, but scoring three times away to Manchester City showed there is plenty in this side going forward.
Brobbey scored all three that afternoon, so losing him is obviously significant. The Dutch striker is now expected to remain out until later in October after suffering a hamstring injury on international duty.
Brighton’s own defensive situation isn’t exactly ideal, though. Lewis Dunk is doubtful, while Mats Wieffer, Jack Hinshelwood and several others are among a lengthy list of absentees.
Brighton have conceded four at Chelsea already this season and Sunderland have scored in four of their five league games.
I don’t fancy the Black Cats to match Brighton goal-for-goal, but one looks achievable.
Pascal Groß to score or assist
Brighton’s attack has been one of the stories of the opening month, and Groß has been right in the middle of it.
With Mitoma and Minteh among those currently sidelined, Brighton will need their experienced players to take even more responsibility in the final third.
Rather than forcing an anytime goalscorer, the goal-or-assist market gives us two routes.
Brighton have created enough chances to score 16 times already, while Sunderland could be without Ballard in the centre of defence.
If the visitors score a couple, Groß looks a decent candidate to be involved somewhere.
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Where can I watch Sunderland vs Brighton?
Sunderland vs Brighton kicks off at 3 pm BST on Saturday, October 10 at the Stadium of Light.
The game will not be shown live in the UK due to the Saturday 3 pm blackout.
What is Sunderland’s predicted team?
(4-2-3-1): Roefs; Mukiele, Danso, Alderete, Reinildo; Xhaka, Sadiki; Meunier, Le Fée, Angulo; Isidor.
Injured: Brian Brobbey, Romaine Mundle, Habib Diarra.
Doubts: Daniel Ballard.
Brobbey is the obvious blow. He had started all five of Sunderland’s league games and scored a hat-trick against Manchester City before suffering his hamstring injury with the Netherlands.
What is Brighton’s predicted team?
(4-2-3-1): Verbruggen; Veltman, Van Hecke, Webster, De Cuyper; Baleba, O’Riley; March, Groß, Gruda; Welbeck.
Injured: Yankuba Minteh, Mats Wieffer, Jack Hinshelwood, Femi Azeez, Evan Ferguson, Kaoru Mitoma.
Doubts: Lewis Dunk, Yasin Ayari, Stefanos Tzimas, Pascal Struijk.
Brighton’s injury list isn’t particularly pleasant reading. They currently have nine players either unavailable or doubtful for the trip to Wearside.
Sunderland vs Brighton prediction
There’s enough about Sunderland at home to make me wary of simply backing Brighton to win.
Le Bris’ side have already beaten Fulham at the Stadium of Light and gave Arsenal a proper game despite eventually losing 2-0. They’re also coming off three goals at the Etihad.
But Brighton have been frightening going forward.
Sixteen goals from five matches is difficult to argue with, and wins of 5-0 and 3-0 immediately before the break suggest their early form is more than a couple of freak results.
Sunderland should cause them problems, particularly given Brighton’s injuries, but I think the visitors have a little too much going the other way.
Score prediction: Sunderland 1-2 Brighton
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